Weekend Gameplan for April 2, 2022: Best bets for Florida Derby card
Yes, it’s way too cold in much of the land, but the 2022 racing season is heating up, if you hadn’t noticed. Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, a bevy of stakes across the land. The focus here is Gulfstream Park, where weather, unfortunately, could play a key role. It seems uncertain how much rain might fall and when, but more likely than not there will be rain.
Florida Derby
Classic Causeway is a better horse than the allowance-class 84 Beyer Speed Figures in two of his last three starts, and his two Tampa stakes wins made a very favorable impression. Both times he broke like a Quarter Horse, then dropped his head and rated, setting and maintaining a strong pace. The competition here, however, looks considerably stronger. We can’t expect Classic Causeway to continue winning the break by two lengths, and he’s drawn inside other pace while coming back on short rest.
White Abarrio missed a key work into the Holy Bull, which he proceeded to easily win at a generous 6-1. Now comes an untimely fever that pushed back his intended final Florida Derby work. I suspect he’ll offer value again.
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I nearly made Charge It the pick and play. In his debut, he almost beat a seasoned, tough horse, Volatile, and Charge It’s second-start maiden win was extremely impressive. Since then, Charge It seems to have been outworking every partner put with him. Promise Keeper wasn’t a bad third last weekend in the New Orleans Classic, and Charge It smoked him. Fearless figures to be favored earlier in the Ghostzapper; Charge It breezed inside of Fearless on March 26 and outworked him, too. Trainer Todd Pletcher over the last five years is 7-0-1-0 with maiden winners going into Grade 1 stakes. Charge It might be good enough that it doesn’t matter, but the problem is you’re not getting any kind of price.
However, his presence and that of Classic Causeway could push Simplification into a playable range. I’ll side with him. I wasn’t a fan of this colt earlier in the year, but he has convinced me he’s a legitimately good horse. Simplification possesses plenty of early speed but has learned to switch off and finish, which could lead to a favorable setup. The March 26 work was a near bullet, but I think his March 19 drill was the major one.
The work is on video, which unfortunately ended just when things got really good. The five-furlong time looks modest, but the meat of this breeze only started at about the eighth pole, and when Simplification hit the seven-furlong marker going around the clubhouse turn, he really started motoring. He should stay the nine furlongs and win the Florida Derby over Charge It.
Pan American
Tide of the Sea is a habitual front-runner and Abaan needs to lead or stick close to show his best, but I don’t believe they’ll be able to keep up with Mid Day Image. And since Mid Day Image has never even tried a graded race, the other pace players might let him go. That’s the hope, and I think he can take this field wire to wire at fair win odds.
I loved the way Mid Day Image galloped along through the middle portion of his last-start win, looking like a horse who could keep up pace for 12 furlongs while crushing a solid field. His Gulfstream record is impressive, and Mid Day Image made a favorable video impression in his lone timed work between starts. Favored Gufo really struggled to get into high gear during his 2021 campaign, and with such a short run to the wire at Gulfstream, Mid Day Image will have a chance to hang on.
Ghostzapper
Carlos L. beat Capocostello a couple times way back when in Panama, but Capocostello was a later-developing sort who needed more distance, and in his final race before coming to North America he cruised to a front-running victory in a Panamanian Grade 1.
Capocostello broke flat-footed and raced in traffic much of his North American debut, which was not a bad performance accounting for circumstances. He wound up finishing with decent energy in a race dominated by Olympiad, among the top older dirt-route horses in America right now. Trainer Fausto Gutierrez (of Letruska fame) brought Capocostello into that January start off a relatively light work pattern, and my guess is that race was meant more than anything to shake off rust. I’m expecting something much better at fair odds in the Ghostzapper.