Weekend GamePlan for April 16, 2022: Picks for Lexington, Giant's Causeway, and Heavenly Cause

Unless we’re taking a time capsule back to 2014, when what is now the Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby Day was run as the Derby Trial the week before the Derby, Saturday, April 16, puts a lid on Kentucky Derby prep season.

The Lexington is the last points race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, and while the best horses racing Saturday at Keeneland are in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, that race won’t make this weekend’s list of three plays. I do favor Regal Glory over Shantisara in the Jenny Wiley, only because of recency and distance, but both will be very short prices.

Love me some Jackie’s Warrior and eagerly anticipate his return as an odds-on favorite in the Count Fleet at Oaklawn, but again, no play.

Lexington

This race holds appeal because of a large field and two vulnerable favorites.

In Due Time, 3-1 on a suspect morning line, came out of a good second-place finish March 5 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes a very tired horse, according to his trainer, Kelly Breen. That’s why he’s gotten extra time and lands in the Lexington rather than the Florida Derby. The only post-Fountain of Youth workout video available is the March 25 drill, his first breeze after the race. Didn’t look to me like In Due Time worked nearly as well as he had before the Fountain of Youth.

Tawny Port, the 5-2 morning-line favorite, races here just two weeks after a hard-trying second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Tawny Port, who has 40 Derby qualifying points, apparently is getting a chance to burnish his dirt bona fides in the Lexington. He ran all right with some trouble in the Risen Star, his lone previous dirt start, but I’m against him.

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I wonder if We All See It had one of those “light bulb goes on” moments March 19 at Fair Grounds. His Beyer Speed Figure jumped to a robust 91 as he edged a sharp Mark Casse colt who also is on the rise. I gave We All See It strong consideration but instead will side with Call Me Midnight.

This horse is 6-1 on the line, and that would be more than fair. Granted, he got a great setup, but Call Me Midnight in the Lecomte Stakes beat none other than Epicenter, favored or close to it for the Derby. Connections skipped the Risen Star and Call Me Midnight could make no late ground rallying from last in the Louisiana Derby. I think that 1 3/16-mile race was too far for him. He had good momentum coming into the stretch and to the furlong grounds, then went flat; this 1 1/16-mile trip is a better fit. This is a tough outside draw, but I’m guessing the pace turns faster than it looks on paper, the field spreads, and Call Me Midnight gets a fair shake in the end.

Giant’s Causeway

Change of Control won this race a year ago and stands an excellent chance of repeating at a fair win price.

Her odds rise because she comes off her worst turf performance in two calendar years, but I submit that Change of Control bounced after her strong comeback run (when she was not fully fit) in the Jan. 29 Fred Aime, where Giant’s Causeway favorite Elle Z came back after being passed and nipped her. I’m also unsure just how much Change of Control likes the Fair Grounds grass course, but she has a proven fondness for Keeneland’s. Her form should be on the rise, while it’s hard to see Elle Z going anywhere but down following a demanding, powerhouse winter campaign.

Heavenly Cause

I’ve fallen hard here for French import Pennybaker. Her switch from turf to all-weather racing last summer revealed a different, better horse. Pennybaker dominated her last four starts in France, the first two from a pressing position, the last two with stalking trips and an impressive turn of foot. She breaks well enough to be an American dirt horse, and the runner-up in her most recent win, Pevensey Bay, is a good mare most recently second in the Group 2 Balanchine Stakes on Feb. 4 at Meydan. We can’t know if the all-weather form translates to dirt, but an outside draw means Pennybaker can stay clear of kickback. Her work pattern – all dirt – for a good layoff barn is encouraging, and Pennybaker’s dam is a sister to the tremendous dirt performer Frosted.