Weekend Game Plan for Saturday, Oct. 5, 2019: Picks for Breeders' Futurity, City of Hope Mile, Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational

East Coast, West Coast, Middle Coast, the racing action comes hot and furious on the first Saturday in October.

Not only is it absurd just saying Middle Coast, but the city of Lexington, Ky., is organized around no body of water whatsoever. Still, it’s landlocked Keeneland that’s the heart of North American racing Saturday.

The card on the whole is excellent, and while the Thoroughbred Club of America feels a little meh, the other four Keeneland stakes don’t. It’s Imprimis versus Leinster (I lean Leinster) in the Grade 2 Woodford, a lead-in to the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, and Rushing Fall (not rushing to try and beat her) trying to run her perfect Keeneland record to 5 for 5 in the Grade 1 First Lady. And the Shadwell Turf Mile is just a remarkably dense knot you could fiddle with for hours. I kind of did, and tepidly landed on longshot First Premio, but that’s an opinion offered without sufficient confidence to make this week’s list of three plays.

Breeders’ Futurity

In the main, the jockeys riding Aug. 24 at Saratoga, Travers Day, avoided the rail like it hosted a colony of scorpions. One horse on the entire card – one! – spent considerable time along what seemed a very dead inner rail and won a dirt race, and that was Tap It to Win. He led early, was displaced on the lead, and then came through a gap at the fence just before the quarter pole to stylishly win a maiden sprint. If he did that despite deep going, extra credit for a win that was eye-catching without even being bias-busting. But Tap It to Win looks like an aggressive sort, and I wonder how he’ll adapt to racing two turns for the first time while breaking from the rail Saturday.

Governeur Morris, meanwhile, was bet like he couldn’t lose debuting in the Sept. 2 Saratoga slop and made his odds-on price look fair, galloping to a nine-length victory while suggesting the 5 1/2-furlong trip sits on the short edge of his distance range. Still, this colt could be favored Saturday, and while he has a stretchout pedigree and clear talent, the distance and class moves in a second start are a lot to take at the likely low price.

Ajaaweed is the one for me. Did you know Ajaaweed is the English transliteration of the Arabic phrase, “man among boys?” Just kidding (as far as I know), but that is how Ajaaweed struck me watching his maiden win at Belmont. The colt, with a stamina-laden pedigree, looks more like a 3-year-old than a 2-year-old, and from a mental/psychological standpoint he didn’t turn a hair despite being stuck along the rail during the early and middle stages of that one-turn mile. And once clear, oh my, what a gorgeous stride. The Saratoga sprint debut merely was a means to and end. He’s ready for this.

City of Hope Mile

Prince Earl now wears the crown as California’s top turf miler – roughly the 87th such horse to hold that position the last five years. Point being, there’s not been a dominant SoCal grass miler in a dog’s age, and until he shows us otherwise, Prince Earl, who got a lovely trip winning the Del Mar Mile, should be regarded as just the latest to pass through a revolving door.

With any luck Synchrony would’ve won the last time he shipped to California, for the Seabiscuit Mile in November. But he had no luck in that race, nor did he last time in the Woodbine Mile, where his path was blocked in upper stretch as Synchrony geared up for his final push. No sooner did a path come clear than another horse dropped down on Synchrony before the furlong grounds, mashing him into another bad spot. In all, Synchrony’s close fifth was better than it looks on paper, and his Monmouth Cup, Turf Classic and Muniz Memorial also come with plausible excuses. He’ll like the move back to a two-turn mile, and with Kingly and Bolo winging ought to be coming into a fair pace at a fair price.

Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational

Lightly raced Hawkish hasn’t raced since May, but twice has fired fresh and sports a work pattern suggesting he’s about to do so again. Hawkish’s Penn Mile from 2018 was a real eye-opener, and the manner in which he travelled at that middle distance hints at a horse with the quickness to adapt to this six-furlong sprint.

Alas, Disco Partner at age 7 might finally be in decline, even over his beloved Belmont course, while Shekky Shabaz’s favoritism hinges on one restricted stakes race where he shook loose on the lead.