Weekend Game Plan: Picks for Woodward Stakes, Juvenile Fillies at Kentucky Downs, Virginia Oaks for Aug. 31, 2019

It’s a two-Grade 1 Saturday in North American racing with the Del Mar Debutante in California and the Woodward at Saratoga.

Colonial Downs hosts its first Virginia Derby in six years, which unfortunately comes the same day as the Saranac in the same 3-year-old turf division at Saratoga and eight days before the rich Dueling Grounds Derby at Kentucky Downs.

Speaking of Kentucky Downs, it’s opening day of the 2019 meeting there and you, horseplayer, owe it to yourself to go carefully through the 10-race card, which features full fields in every race and plenty of wagering fodder. One race from that card makes it onto this edition of Weekend Game Plan along with the Woodward and the Virginia Oaks.

Woodward

This is Yoshida’s race to lose, but though he’s a legit favorite, I think he can be taken down. Yoshida won this race a year ago, beating Gunnevera and Leofric, which elicits a shrug, and he turned in a peak performance following a turf race three weeks prior in which he didn’t show his best. This is another three-week turnaround, but this time Yoshida does come off a peak race, and one that came on dirt, which can take more out of a horse. There’s no strong evidence suggesting he can go pop-pop at the top of his form on such short rest.

Vino Rosso races with blinkers removed, but I don’t believe he has another level to reach. Preservationist looked nothing in the Whitney like the horse who won the Suburban so well and can get caught up in a strong pace.

Joel Rosario rides Yoshida here and was part of team Tom’s d’Etat before understandably abandoning that mount in the Woodward. But Rosario’s influence on Tom’s d’Etat still might be felt Saturday. Tom’s d’Etat surged powerfully on the turn in the restricted Alydar Stakes on Aug. 2 and appeared to have the race well in hand at the quarter pole. At the furlong grounds, Rosario glanced back, saw no one who could catch him, and wrapped up on his mount to preserve something for the Woodward, his major goal at the meet. Thank you, Joel.

Tom’s d’Etat is a scopey, gorgeous star-crossed 6-year-old son of Smart Strike who was all set to make his mark on the 2017 Woodward before injury derailed his career. He was doing all right over the winter at Fair Grounds, but the horse I saw moving in the Alydar appeared to be going much better than the one I watched in New Orleans, an observation perhaps linked to Tom’s d’Etat’s 3-for-3 Saratoga mark. He got into a front-end scrum in the Stephen Foster but can pull the same trip Saturday he got in his Woodward prep, and hopefully this is the day Tom’s d’Etat pulls his Grade 1 coup.

Exacta Systems Juvenile Fillies

Tough group to separate on paper. On replays it was Lemon Scat who stood out to me. The short chart comment from her debut says “mild gain,” but that undersells her energetic finish and strong gallop out for a barn that rarely fires with first-timers. Second time out she finished things off with aplomb, galloping out strongly again, and this filly has a nice way of moving once she finds her full stride. So far that has happened after she gets off the far turn, and the Kentucky Downs configuration, with a false homestretch followed by the real homestretch, should give her plenty of time to unwind after coming off the race’s one relatively gentle bend.

Virginia Oaks

Came into this expecting to land on Tasting the Stars, whose debut I saw firsthand at Fair Grounds and who loomed a contender for the Fair Grounds Oaks before what trainer Mike Stidham called a minor injury set her down for the spring. Her comeback run came on turf and was a success, yielding a minor Monmouth Stakes victory, but her performance looks better superficially than after getting some closer scrutiny. A fast pace in that race really fell apart late, and Tasting the Stars didn’t accelerate to victory so much as inherit the win. She bobbled a couple times, and I’m not entirely sure she’s a true grass horse.

Mercilla did no bobbling in her lone North American grass race. Granted, that was only a first-level allowance at Pimlico with a short field, but she beat older horses after making one move to get into position and another to finish off a decent horse with an eye-catching kick. Her last-out dirt experiment is a toss, and she’s been training steadily since, awaiting this spot. The nine furlongs seems like a plus, and despite a lack of pace, she’s taken to rally to her first stakes win.