Weekend Game Plan: Picks for Travers Stakes, Ballerina Stakes, Ballston Spa Stakes for Aug. 24, 2019

Saratoga crests Saturday when it hosts seven of the nine North American graded stakes on the day, with the Runhappy Travers taking a starring role. The stakes come consecutively, races 5 through 11, six of them Grade 1’s, and are loaded with stars.

Mitole seeks a rebound from his first 2019 loss when he meets Promises Fulfilled in the Grade 1 Forego. I’m not enthralled with either at their respective price.

Shancelot drew the rail as the 1-2 favorite in the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens and the proper response to that is – a shrug. This could be the fastest horse on the continent.

I lean Elate over Midnight Bisou in the Personal Ensign but suspect she’s favored.

My strongest Sword Dancer opinion is that Annals of Time will be overbet. This long-distance grass fixture likely comes down to racing luck.

Travers Stakes

Respect to the shortest Travers prices, Tacitus and Code of Honor, both of whom have legitimate claims.

There’s little doubt Tacitus, his losses due to track bias and trip, was the best horse in the Jim Dandy and the Belmont, his last two starts, and I don’t doubt he’s set to deliver a representative performance (though Bill Mott has strangely icy numbers with this blinkers-on move).

Code of Honor finished in front of Tacitus in the Kentucky Derby and simply ran the better race. His most recent workout impressed, and you can’t fault his Dwyer over a one-turn Belmont mile. Maybe Code of Honor can run as well going 1 1/4 miles – maybe. He’s a short, slight fellow whose dam was a sprinter.

Mucho Gusto sucked along to finish second in the Haskell after Maximum Security flicked away his challenge. Mucho Gusto’s stablemate Game Winner was supposed to be Bob Baffert’s Travers horse before getting sick.

I still really, really wonder if the established top of the 3-year-old class is more than substandard and am approaching the Travers with that in mind.

I disliked Looking At Bikinis in the Curlin Stakes as the 6-5 favorite, so it might seem counterintuitive to like him in this much deeper spot after a tame third-place finish. But Looking At Bikinis’s Curlin was better than it looks. The rail that Saratoga card was quicksand, and after being kept off it into the first turn, Looking At Bikinis wound up on the fence most of the second part of the race, badly compromising him.

Saturday, Looking At Bikinis at worst is pressing a moderate pace and at best is controlling a slow one. His flashy debut might’ve been slop enhanced, but his comeback run this year, like his Curlin, was stronger than it looks on paper. He might just not be good enough but gets a double dose of stamina from sire and female family and is worth a bet at double-digit odds.

Ballerina Stakes

Come Dancing is a pretty massive specimen, with a powerful barrel and relatively short legs – she’s the opposite of an agile, handy type, and that makes her inside draw in the Ballerina especially tricky. Come Dancing’s best races have come when she establishes a clear lead going a moderate tempo or with clean outside-pressing journeys; she’s getting neither of those as the 4-5 morning-line favorite. It’s also fair to wonder if her admittedly high-level peak earlier this season will prove replicable, especially over a track where she didn’t excel last season.

I wanted to side with Mia Mischief, who, I believe, was merely prepping for this in her subpar Honorable Miss. But Separationofpowers beat Mia Mischief last season in the Test and can get the better of her again Saturday. Trainer Chad Brown already knows Separationofpowers handles the Saratoga main track and apparently kept her at Belmont to maintain a steady, encouraging training rhythm for one of the two major goals of her season. Mia Mischief gets first run on the dueling pair of Come Dancing and Minit to Stardom, but Separationofpowers gets the final word.

Ballston Spa Stakes

The 2018 Ballston Spa turned into a parade, Quidura leading Hawksmoor around the Saratoga course, and though she was rank early, the horse finishing fastest from the back was Indian Blessing. Her First Lady third last fall behind A Raving Beauty and Dona Bruja, both of whom are better than anything in this Ballston Spa, was an even better performance, and Indian Blessing likely was over the top coming back just two weeks later at Belmont. Her European form into this race looks about the same as last year’s while the Ballston Spa competition looks considerably softer.