Wednesday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: True Empress returns to NYRA circuit in better form

Saratoga | Race 7 | Post Time 4:34 p.m. (ET)

Athena Beach (#5) figures to take money off her runner-up finish to Tricky Temper earlier this month. She was obviously flattered when that rival came back to win the Union Avenue with a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, Tricky Temper was racing outside on Aug. 2, a day that featured a rail bias, whereas Athena Beach was setting the pace inside. I wonder if that enhanced her performance, so that she’s better assessed by some of her prior efforts.

Cousin Kristi (#4) is another who could take money, but she was beaten more decisively by that same rival, Tricky Temper, in the Union Avenue last time. That was her return to the NYRA circuit after running some faster speed figures for a different barn at Gulfstream. I didn’t think she was quite good enough to beat this field based on her prior New York form, and she appeared to regress back to it last time.

Perhaps the right horse to take out of that Aug. 2 race at this level is Missing Fortune (#3), who was always chasing 3-wide against that rail bias. She had run well at Saratoga previously and had a right to need her return at Finger Lakes two back. Now she’s third off the layoff and may be capable of a better performance over a fair racetrack.

I’m most interested in another Finger Lakes horse. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with enough speed signed on to set things up for a closer. True Empress (#6) might fit the bill as she returns to the NYRA circuit. She wasn’t running quite well enough to beat a field like this when we last saw her at Aqueduct, but now she’s back in the barn of Finger Lakes-based trainer Michael Ferraro. She had been in the best form of her career when with this trainer last year, reeling off 5 victories in 7 starts for this barn, with 2 seconds. Furthermore, she’s won each of the last 6 races in which she’s been trainer by Ferraro and ridden by Luis Perez. She won when she was back with that team last time, overcoming a very tardy start to win going away. If she gets the right setup, I think she this longshot can outrun her odds.