Wednesday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Midtown Lights set for better in return from layoff
Saratoga | Race 8 | Post Time 5:14 p.m. (ET)
The Rick Dutrow-trained coupled entry of The Big Calhouna (#2) and Everyoneloveslinda (#2B) should be the favored wagering interest in this competitive allowance optional claimer. Both are contenders in their own right, but they may be an underlay as a single unit, with both attracting significant support. I slightly prefer Everyoneloveslinda, who faced a tough field off the layoff at Churchill last time. She ranged up outside at the quarter pole and just flattened out late behind a few stakes-quality rivals. She now drops slightly in class and picks up Flavien Prat for her return to the NYRA circuit. Stablemate The Big Calhouna has posted some impressive speed figures, but she was beating weaker company when she first came into the Dutrow barn this winter and must prove she can hold that form into the summer.
Princess Madison (#3) figures to attract some attention as she returns to the site of her best performance, winning an allowance race here last summer with a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that effort would probably put her in the winner's circle here, but her form tailed off in two subsequent starts last season. She returned from a lengthy layoff 17 days ago at Ellis Park and was disappointed as the even-money favorite. Phil Bauer has had some highly successful Saratoga meets over the last few years, but his barn has been quiet since last summer. It will be interesting to see if he can rekindle that Spa magic once again.
My top pick is Midtown Lights (#7), who gets some changes as she returns from a layoff. This filly was concentrating on route races when last seen, but now she returns cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs. I like the turnback for a mare who had some success sprinting early in her career. She also lands in a race that appears to feature plenty of speed, with the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicting a fast pace. She has the highest TimeformUS Late Pace Rating of anyone in this field, and cutting back in distance should sharpen her late kick. Furthermore, she's switching into the barn of Saffie Joseph, who has success with this move. Saffie is 14 for 44 (32%, $2.35 ROI) first off trainer switches with non-maidens coming off 100- to 300-day layoffs over 5 years. He's also 7 for 16 (44%, $2.79 ROI) on dirt within that sample, according to DRF Formulator.