Wednesday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Market Alert’s early speed more dangerous at a mile
Belmont at the Big A | Race 3 | Post Time 2:09 p.m. (ET)
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This statebred optional claimer revolves around morning-line favorite Shadow Dragon (#7) and whether he can get back on track following a poor performance last time. Perhaps he didn’t appreciate the stretch out to nine furlongs, but he was never involved in that race as the 6-5 favorite. He had performed much better in his prior start going a mile around one turn. However, he now lands in a race where the pace setup might not work in his favor. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring front-runners. Shadow Dragon does possess the highest Late Pace Rating, but he has to avoid leaving himself with too much to do.
Aggregation (#1) is obviously a threat to wire the field. While he hasn’t been a confirmed front-runner in prior starts, he has consistently displayed tactical speed and now stretches out from a sprint where he was outrun by faster rivals. Chad Brown adds blinkers, perhaps signaling intention, and the rail post position should solidify an aggressive strategy. I’m just not convinced he’s ever going to run back to that impressive allowance score from May 2022. He’s been campaigned sparingly since then, and this barn does not have positive statistics with blinker additions.
Thrill of It (#2) has earned a competitive set of recent speed figures, but he’s struggled to make much of an impact on the results of his recent starts at this level. He was successful going a mile earlier in his career, so perhaps the stretch-out will aid him. However, you have to accept a shorter price with Irad Ortiz Jr. getting aboard this time.
My top pick is Market Alert (#4). He’s not shown leading on the Pace Projector, but he certainly possesses the tactical speed to be forwardly placed going this distance. He did win in gate-to-wire fashion against a tougher open-company field when he raced a mile at this venue in early March. He went off form for trainer Orlando Noda after that, but he might be ready to turn things around in the barn of Charlton Baker. His first start off the trainer switch last time isn’t nearly as bad as it looks, since he didn’t seem to respond to rating tactics, pulling in the early stages before losing position on the turn. I do think that effort was a step in the right direction, and I expect him to get a more aggressive ride from Trevor McCarthy.