Wednesday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Coppa Girl can back up impressive maiden score
Saratoga | Race 8 | Post Time 5:10 p.m. (ET) TimeformUS PPs are now available on drf.com. Go to shop.drf.com and use coupon code NYRATF23 to get one free TimeformUS card.
Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies third-place finisher Raging Sea (#3) figures to attract plenty of support as she returns for her 3-year-old debut. This daughter of Curlin showed promise right from the start last season, determinedly rallying to victory in her career debut over this surface. She was subsequently disqualified from a placing in the Grade 1 Alcibiades for stretch interference, but she still put in a strong effort that day. She ran back to that form in the Breeders’ Cup, overcoming a disadvantageous wide post position to rally through traffic. It’s taken her a while to get back to the races this year, but Chad Brown has good statistics with this move. According to DRF Formulator, he is 8 for 22 (36 percent, $2.23 ROI) with 3-year-olds off layoffs of 180 days or more in dirt allowance races over the last five years. She appears to be working well and is clearly the one to beat.
Some may consider a few of her older rivals as alternatives. Pharoah’s Heart (#5) has certainly run speed figures that put her in the mix, and she’s dropping in class after having already won at the tougher N2X level this spring. Her speed makes her dangerous, but there are some others that could keep her company up front.
I want to go in a different direction with another lightly raced 3-year-old. Coppa Girl (#7) took a few starts to win her maiden, but she had legitimate excuses in those first two losses in Kentucky. She got away to a tangled start on debut at Churchill and did well to make a mid-race move into contention before flattening out. Then two back she stumbled badly at the start, essentially dropping to her face, before recovering to get back into the race. She actually tried to make up ground, but was compromised by a speed-favoring course on June 10 at Ellis. It all came together last time in the slop, where she won even more comfortably than the margin indicates. She has to get a little faster to take down the favorite and some others, but she still has upside and Brad Cox excels with these types. He is 22 for 60 (37 percent, $2.67 ROI) with 3-year-old last-out maiden winners returning in dirt-route allowance races over the past five years.