Weather forecast further complicates deep American Turf

The Grade 2, $400,000 American Turf even under ideal conditions would be a mind-melting race, 13 3-year-olds, several of considerable accomplishment, others of significant promise, lining up Saturday to run 1 1/16 miles on the Churchill Downs grass.

Parsing form becomes even more difficult given a weather forecast that portends a wet course.

“My gut feeling is it would be no problem if it’s wet,” said Chad Brown, trainer of Digital Age. “In the end, you just don’t know.”

Digital Age, despite starting his career with two sharp wins for America’s most popular turf trainer, is listed at 6-1 on the morning line. That’s not an outrageous line and the price speaks to the depth and complexity of this field.

Some might downgrade Digital Age because Brown and owner Klaravich Stables raced him at Tampa Bay Downs rather than Gulfstream Park. That would be a mistake.

“I thought the turf at Tampa would suit him,” Brown said. “He doesn’t have a lot of early speed and needs to get his toe in the ground to accelerate.”

Digital Age, an Ireland-bred son of Invincible Spirit who was purchased at the 2017 Tattersalls yearling sale in England, turned in a ridiculous debut. Caught about five paths wide on the first turn, he was buried behind horses until about the furlong pole, where jockey Irad Ortiz tipped him outside and pumped his arms a couple times as Digital Age inhaled the horses ahead of him and won going away. In the March 9 Columbia Stakes, Digital Age ran his final quarter-mile in 22.58 to blow by more experienced rivals.

“Hoping he tucks in, gets a nice ground-saving trip with some pace in front of him,” said Brown.

Ortiz rode another exciting colt, Seismic Wave, to a last-out stakes victory, but Joel Rosario picks up the mount here for trainer Bill Mott and Juddmonte Farms. Seismic Wave ran well in two maiden losses at age 2 (one over a wet course), began racing on Lasix this winter at Gulfstream, won a maiden race there Feb. 16, and excelled March 30 in the $125,000 Cutler Bay Stakes. There, Seismic Wave, an athletic chestnut colt by Tapit, was last of seven cornering into the homestretch, but with a final half-mile in 45.87 seconds, Seismic Wave wove between horses and got up by neck.

While Seismic Wave and Digital Age are colts on the come, A Thread of Blue already is a multiple stakes winner this year, having captured the Dania Beach, leading all the way, and the Grade 3 Palm Beach, where he rated just behind the leaders and finished strong. A Thread of Blue won the Palm Beach by three-quarters of a length, but trainer Kiaran McLaughlin confirmed the impression that his horse idled after making the front before comfortably turning back American Turf entrant Casa Creed.

“We drew the one hole here and it doesn’t look like an abundance of sped, so hopefully we’re on or near the lead,” McLaughlin said. “He handled the soft last year even though he didn’t win.”

The Todd Pletcher-trained Social Paranoia, third in the Pilgrim Stakes last September, began his season with an eight-length Gulfstream maiden turf-route win, and could be anything. Avie’s Flatter, Henley’s Joy, The Black Album, and War Film finished one-two-three-four in the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes last month at Keeneland.

A deep race – over a potentially deep course.