Watchmaker's Belmont pick six for Saturday

The New York Racing Association’s inaugural “Stars and Stripes” card Saturday at Belmont Park is long on quality and long on betting opportunities. There are many intriguing multirace exotic sequences throughout the card, not the least of which is the pick six on the fifth through last races. So, as yours truly did on a couple of big race days earlier in the season, let’s take a look at this pick six, from race to race, and categorize horses to potentially be used as A’s, B’s, and C’s.

Before we get started, a word about the weather. Two races were taken off the turf at Belmont on Thursday after strong storms dumped heavy rain on the New York area Wednesday night. More storms hit Thursday night, causing additional races to be taken off the turf Friday. And more rain, possibly heavy, was expected through Friday.

I don’t think there is any chance that the two grass stakes races in Saturday’s pick six sequence, the Belmont Derby and Belmont Oaks, will come off the turf, not with all the international shippers in those races. But it’s anyone’s guess what might happen with the two overnight turf races that bookend this pick six, so I made some dirt picks for those races in case they are moved to the main track.

Race 5, a maiden special weight for New York-breds scheduled to be run at six furlongs on the Widener turf course

I don’t like spreading right out of the box. Unfortunately, that is what I have to do here. Fortunately, stronger opinions later on will help me narrow the ticket.

Favorites Dowse’s Beach, narrowly beaten in his recent seasonal bow and who takes a cutback to a sprint that I like, and A Marked Man, who comes out of a decidedly weak New York Stallion Series race but who still ran well enough in comparison to this field, look solid. But I’m intrigued with others.

Blue Chips Only would be finally getting on turf and is out of a mare who was a multiple winner on grass. Latigo Trail improved sharply in his very recent turf debut, just failing to hold on. And Mr. Freud moves in with New York-breds after running reasonably well against straight maidens in his first two starts at Presque Isle Downs.

As for dirt, there isn’t much good dirt form in this race. Blue Chips Only caught good fields on dirt in his first two starts. A Marked Man was a decent second in an off-the-turf race two starts back. We don’t know anything about Mr. Freud on dirt, but he has a dirt pedigree on the bottom side.

Turf:
A’s: Dowse’s Beach, A Marked Man
B’s: Mr. Freud, Latigo Trail, Blue Chips Only
C’s: None

Dirt:
A’s: Mr. Freud, Blue Chips Only, A Marked Man
B’s: None
C’s: None

Race 6, Belmont Sprint Championship, seven furlongs

The ticket begins to narrow here. I have had a fairly long love-hate relationship with Clearly Now, and while I said recently on Twitter that I was off him, the more I looked at this race, the more I realized that I have to use him again here. Clearly Now keeps pulling me in because he keeps pulling trips that range from unfavorable to downright awful.

The fact is that Clearly Now has won but once in his last nine starts, but he’s in a much easier spot than he was in the Met Mile last time, and the shorter distance suits him.

Central Banker, who was unable to run in the Met Mile because he received medication too close to that race, is the best horse here off his win in the Churchill Downs Stakes. He must be used, but I don’t completely trust him. He’s yet to run the kind of race he ran at Churchill in New York. In fact, his one dud race in his last four starts was in the Carter at Aqueduct.

As for Palace, he’s a cool horse, but he got a fantastic setup when he won the True North and won’t get as favorable a setup Saturday. Besides, I don’t think the True North horses are as good as Central Banker and Clearly Now.

A’s: Central Banker, Clearly Now
B’s: None
C’s: None

Race 7, the Belmont Derby, 1 1/4 miles on the inner turf course

As I wrote in my Weekend Warrior column, I’m taken with Dance With Fate. From early this year, Dance With Fate was pointed to the Blue Grass, and he inhaled his field in that race with a sweeping move on the far turn. He was actually terrific in finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby on a dirt surface that is supposed to be his third-best. Dance With Fate has pointed to this race ever since and is getting back to turf, which he is said to love.

But I also have to use the Europeans Adelaide and Gailo Chop because they just might be better than our horses. I’m a little more reserved about UAE Derby winner Toast of New York because he has yet to win on grass and reportedly does not fancy soft ground. But he still has to be used.

And I can’t draw the line there in this deep race. I have to throw in Bobby’s Kitten because he’s so talented even if the 10-furlong distance might be too far; Pornichet because I want to cover all the Euros; Mr Speaker, who can’t really be as bad as he was in the local prep for this; and Global View because he might really like the added distance.

A’s: Adelaide, Dance With Fate, Gailo Chop
B’s: Toast of New York
C’s: Bobby’s Kitten, Pornichet, Mr Speaker, Global View

Race 8, the Suburban Handicap, 1 1/4 miles

As I also wrote in my Weekend Warrior column, Romansh is, in my view, without question, the horse to beat here. He was an excellent third in the Met Mile last time, and the added distance Saturday only helps. Moreover, he’s capable of running a race far bigger than just about anyone else in this field.

But I have to give Moreno one more chance. He was dreadful when I picked him in the Met Mile, but he ran well under adverse circumstances in his first two starts this year, he gets his blinkers back, will also like the added distance, and might be the controlling speed.

I’m against the crew coming out of the 12-furlong Brooklyn, so Last Gunfighter is the only other horse I could consider using. I never thought Last Gunfighter was a true Grade 2 horse despite his Hawthorne Gold Cup win two back, but he’s consistent and likes the distance.

A’s: Romansh, Moreno
B’s: Last Gunfighter
C’s: None

Race 9, the Belmont Oaks, 1 1/4 miles on the inner turf course

I decided not to make this race more difficult than it probably should be and to resist the temptation to spread too much just because of the type of race it is. Xcellence finished third in two Group 1 races in France this year in her last two starts, beating 13 opponents in one and nine in the other. There is an “xcellent” chance she might completely lay over this field.

Flying Jib won the last three of four career starts in Ireland and has the profile of a high-class performer, but she might be outside her comfort zone going 10 furlongs. Room Service, off three straight wins, the most recent an easy score in the American Oaks at the distance, looks the best of the Americans, and I’ll throw her in as a deep backup along with the two other Europeans, Goldy Espony and Wonderfully. I want to have all the Euros covered, even if a couple are only C’s.

A’s: Xcellence
B’s: Flying Jib
C’s: Goldy Espony, Room Service, Wonderfully

Race 10, first-level New York-bred allowance scheduled for 1 1/16 miles on the Widener turf course

On turf, I would be happy to be alive to Point Roll and Hidden Vow. Point Roll surrendered in an off-the-turf race in the mud last time, but two back, he won a statebred maiden race on turf in the manner of one who won’t remain in this condition for very long. I’m not sure where Hidden Vow came up with his very good, if extremely surprising, third in the Kingston Stakes in his recent seasonal bow. But if that performance is anywhere close to a true bill, he’ll be formidable.

The only others I could consider as distant backups are Mr Algebra, who doesn’t really want to win but who has run fast enough to contend, and Spinning for Home, who would be back on turf for a barn that has done little wrong the entire meet. If this gets moved to the main track, then main-track-only entrant Four Directions is logical off a good dirt maiden win last time with blinkers on over Warriors Hero, who, not surprisingly, I needed. But Spinning for Home, who won an off-the-turfer two back, would have to be used. And I would also include Point Roll because I can’t believe he’d be as hopeless on a dry dirt track as he was in the mud most recently.

Turf:
A’s: Point Roll, Hidden Vow
B’s: None
C’s: Mr Algebra, Spinning for Home

Dirt:
A’s: Four Directions
B’s: Spinning for Home, Point Roll
C’s: None