Watchmaker: Triple Crown grind leaves Justify vulnerable

ELMONT, N.Y. – When a shot for a Triple Crown sweep is alive into the Belmont Stakes, there is absolutely nothing in the game like it. As great as the Breeders’ Cup is, the electric atmosphere sure to be felt Saturday at Belmont Park will surpass anything else you can hope to experience in American racing.

My hope is every racing fan will at least once get to experience Belmont Park on a Belmont Stakes Day with a live Triple Crown opportunity.

We have Justify to thank for this latest thrill. Justify stands on the verge of becoming only the 13th horse to sweep the Triple Crown after becoming the first in 136 years to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old, and then finding a way to win the Preakness to extend his unbeaten streak to five.

Justify’s Derby performance was outstanding as he scored by daylight despite disputing a scorching pace that would have fried many a high-class horse. His Preakness was less so. In fact, even though he won, by most measures his effort was the weakest of his otherwise sensational career.

That Justify can win a classic race with a “B” performance speaks volumes of what a horse he is. Justify is the best seen so far of his generation, and by a substantial margin.

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Nevertheless, Justify showed in the Preakness that he, like every other racehorse who ever lived, is susceptible to variances of form, and thus is not invincible. Secretariat, the greatest horse of my racing lifetime, had his off days. Onion, anyone? So did Seattle Slew.

Heck, Citation, whom the late, great Daily Racing Form chartcaller Jack Wilson once told me only half-kiddingly could beat Secretariat “pulling a wagon,” lost 13 times. I mean, American Pharoah lost the Travers to Keen Ice.

The thing is, although those noted above threw in the occasional subpar performance, none did during their Triple Crown sweeps. At least none did to the point where it cost them their sweep.

If for whatever reason Justify is incapable Saturday of cycling back to the outstanding form he held before the Preakness, which I think is easier said than done, then it is up to him to at least avoid throwing in an effort subpar to the point that it might cost him the Belmont. He already dodged a big bullet by getting away with one in Baltimore. I don’t think he can get away with it twice.

Justify’s biggest fans would argue that, as he proved in the Preakness, even his “B” race is good enough, and he could win the Belmont with another such effort. Maybe. But what if the Preakness was a signal that Justify’s overall form is tailing off, even if just for the time being?

I was solidly behind Justify in the Derby. I didn’t care that he didn’t begin his career until Feb. 18. For me, his enormous talent trumped any lack of seasoning or 2-year-old racing foundation he might have had. And that’s how it worked out in Louisville. He won as miles the best.

But my fear after the Preakness was that Justify’s lack of foundation for not having raced at 2 could be starting to show and might really manifest itself right as the Triple Crown concludes. There is zero doubt Justify is good enough to win these Triple Crown races. He is more than good enough. It’s just that while Justify’s lack of 2-year-old foundation meant nothing in the Derby, I’m worried it has become critically important in the cumulative sense of the Triple Crown.

In concert with Justify having to answer questions of form and foundation is the hardly inconsequential fact that he must do so while also having to negotiate the Belmont’s demanding 1 1/2-mile distance. At any other time, Justify probably would have no trouble negotiating 12 furlongs. But for him to have to do so now, under these circumstances, seems like yet another very big ask.

The good news here is if Justify wins the Belmont, there won’t be any question about his greatness. Not in my mind.

But when questions of this nature concern a heavy favorite in any race, I rarely think twice about picking and betting against him, Belmont Stakes included. I have immense respect for Justify, and I am a big, big fan. But I think Hofburg will win the Belmont.

I’ve been a fan of Hofburg from early on, too. I was impressed with his maiden victory at Gulfstream in his first start this year when he overcame the sort of wide trip that hardly ever wins 1 1/16-mile races there. I was impressed to the point where Hofburg was my pick in the subsequent Florida Derby, and an underneath pick behind Justify in the Kentucky Derby.

Hofburg ran perfectly fine when second in the Florida Derby, and his seventh in the Kentucky Derby was way better than it looks on paper. He was in tight between horses late on the first turn, was blocked and steadied for much of the far turn while having plenty of run, checked nearing the stretch, yet still finished well and galloped out very well past the wire.

Lots of folks think highly of Hofburg. He has become a darling of trip handicappers, so much so that I expect him to go off the second choice Saturday. But perhaps most tellingly, his Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott obviously thinks the world of him. It was highly uncharacteristic of Mott to run a last-out maiden winner in a race like the Florida Derby and a horse still eligible to the first-level allowance condition in, of all races, the Kentucky Derby.

Hofburg skipped the Preakness. He is fresh, and this is the time for him to take the measure of Justify.

2018 BELMONT STAKES FIELD

POST	HORSE / SIRE		TRACK ODDS	WATCHMAKER ODDS	BEST BEYER	DERBY FINISH, BEYER	PREAKNESS FINISH, BEYER	JAY PRIVMAN AND MIKE WATCHMAKER COMMENTS
		- designates Keeneland sale graduate
1	Justify		4-5	1-1	107	1st, 103	1st, 97	JP: Clearly best of this crop. Only question will be if cumulative toll of campaign finally wears him down.
	by Scat Daddy							MW: I'm a big fan. Didn't care about his lack of 2yo foundation in Derby, but fear it could hurt him now.
	Owner: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, Starlight Racing, & Head of Plains Partners; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Mike Smith
2	Free Drop Billy		30-1	30-1	90	16th, 43	**	JP: Just don't think he's made any advancement from 2-year-old form. Saved ground in Derby, retreated.
	by Union Rags							MW: The problem with his static form from 2 to 3 is his 2yo form looked better on paper than it really was.
	Owner: Albaugh Family Stables; Trainer: Dale Romans; Jockey: Robby Albarado
3	Bravazo		8-1	8-1	96	6th, 91	2nd, 96	JP: Hearty sort only one beside Justify to compete in entire Triple Crown. Distance shouldn't hinder him.
	by Awesome Again							MW: Followed through on improved effort in Derby with an even better try in Preakness; has a chance.
	Owner: Calumet Farm; Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas; Jockey: Luis Saez
4	Hofburg		9-2	5-1	94	7th, 90	**	JP: Had severe traffic when trying to rally on far turn in Derby. Benefits from five-week break. Dangerous.
	by Tapit							MW: He's my pick, and I know I'm far from alone on that. Fine try in Derby, primed for a big effort now.
	Owner: Juddmonte Farms; Trainer: Bill Mott; Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
5	Restoring Hope		30-1	20-1	90	**	**	JP: Still eligible to a first-level allowance. Better suited to that than again being thrown to the wolves.
	by Giant's Causeway							MW: I can forgive his flop in the slop last time. His Wood, though, makes me wonder if he wants distance.
	Owner: Gary & Mary West; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Florent Geroux
6	Gronkowski		12-1	15-1	n/a	**	**	JP: Certain to take money due to name, but ran against far softer overseas. Local works have been fine.
	by Lonhro							MW: I guessed he'll be around 15-1. He could be lower. But I think his actual chances are around 60-1.
	Owner: Phoenix Thoroughbred Limited, et al; Trainer: Chad Brown; Jockey: Jose Ortiz
7	Tenfold		12-1	10-1	95	**	3rd, 95	JP: Like Justify, has come long way since February debut. Loomed up in Preakness, swapped leads late.
	by Curlin							MW: He ran okay in the Preakness and does have license to improve. Might be the main overlay here.
	Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds; Trainer: Steve Asmussen; Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
8	Vino Rosso		8-1	6-1	98	9th, 88	**	JP: Took scenic route in Derby. This is Pletcher's signature move, skip Preakness to be primed for Belmont.
	by Curlin							MW: I just wish he showed a bit more life in the Derby. He was really out of gas through the stretch run.
	Owner: Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez
9	Noble Indy		30-1	20-1	95	17th, 42	**	JP: Derby was first time on slop, gave way without a fight. Rider took care of him, didn't persevere late.
	by Take Charge Indy							MW: Even on his favorite surface and off his best race, he seems a decided cut below the best here.
	Owner: WinStar Farm & Repole Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Javier Castellano
10	Blended Citizen		15-1	20-1	90	**	**	JP: Had a made-to-order setup in Peter Pan, finished well to prevail, but don't think that field was much.
	by Proud Citizen							MW: No question he has improved with racing, in blinkers, but he needs a big step forward to contend.
	Owner: Greg Hall and SAYJAY Racing; Trainer: Doug O'Neill; Jockey: Kyle Frey