Watchmaker: Strong field, but a stronger favorite
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Only time will tell how good this 3-year-old crop is. We’ll have to see what kind of speed figures they earn as they fully mature, and how this group fares when they compete against older horses. Here’s hoping we have lots of opportunities to see this crop take on the best of their elders.
But with Saturday’s Kentucky Derby now at hand, there is already a strong sense that at the top this is the strongest and deepest Derby class we’ve seen in years. What’s even better, this is an entirely likeable group, too.
Perhaps the biggest storyline into this Derby is the double-barreled assault on the 136-year-old Derby streak against horses who were unraced as 2-year-olds. Justify, who did not begin his career until Feb. 18, has been positively sensational, winning all three of his starts, including a powerful victory in the Santa Anita Derby that justifiably makes Justify the Kentucky Derby favorite.
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And Magnum Moon, who didn’t launch his career until Jan. 13, has been almost as impressive, winning all four of his starts, including an emphatic score most recently in the Arkansas Derby. So the “curse of Apollo” be damned. Justify and Magnum Moon actually have a shot of going off the first two betting favorites. Heck, would anyone be really surprised if they combined for an unraced-at-2 Derby exacta?
Speaking of streaks, the UAE Derby has been on a negative one since its birth in 2000 in that it has not yet produced a Kentucky Derby starter who has been seriously competitive. But that streak might not be alive for much longer. Mendelssohn was brilliant winning the UAE Derby by 18 1/2 lengths in his first attempt on dirt, earning a 106 Beyer Speed Figure, which falls one tiny point shy of the 107 that Justify received in the Santa Anita Derby, which is the highest in this field.
It is important to note that Mendelssohn was cut out for big-time success here in the United States, being a half-brother to four-time Eclipse Award winner Beholder. In fact, Mendelssohn has already had major success here, shipping from Ireland last fall for Aidan O’Brien, arguably the best trainer in the world, and winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf over an above-par field.
All of this makes Mendelssohn easily the most dangerous Kentucky Derby hopeful ever to come out of Dubai.
Wait. We’re not done yet.
Good Magic and Bolt d’Oro – by far the two best 2-year-old males of 2017 – are in this Derby, and in with strong chances at victory, to boot. Good Magic ran away with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall as a maiden, won the Blue Grass, and seems primed for a top effort third start off a freshening.
Bolt d’Oro was only second to Justify in the Santa Anita Derby, but was dead game, and ran well enough to earn his third triple-digit Beyer. Only Justify has as many in this field. Moreover, Bolt d’Oro did so off of what had to be a draining effort when he was moved up to first in the controversial San Felipe in his 3-year-old bow.
Audible hasn’t been seriously challenged this year and showed when he landed the Florida Derby in decisive fashion that he can win from anywhere on the track. And Vino Rosso impressed winning the Wood Memorial, suggesting he has quickly come to hand and is only just now getting started.
As a fan, I like all of these horses. But as a handicapper and horseplayer, it’s time to take a stand and give some of these horses, as likeable as they might be, the heave-ho.
Vino Rosso, might have put it all together in the Wood, but he’ll have to show it to me one more time against this much better and much deeper Derby field. And as for Audible, I have no bones to pick with him. I just like a few others more.
For better or worse, my biggest plays against in this Derby are Good Magic and Mendelssohn.
Good Magic might improve off the Blue Grass, and he had better – and significantly – or it will be a struggle for him to merely get a minor piece. And when Mendelssohn freaked in Dubai, he controlled a moderate pace and might also have benefitted from a track bias, although I’m still on the fence on that. In any case, Mendelssohn will encounter a different pace scenario this time, and I’ve had a longstanding policy that the first UAE Derby winner to win the Kentucky Derby will be at my expense.
Even if I am loath to pick a favorite in the Kentucky Derby, I can’t help but stand with Justify. I don’t care that he didn’t race at 2. Justify is a rare talent who might simply be that much better than everyone else. He was certainly monstrous manhandling the far more seasoned and very, very good Bolt d’Oro most recently, and I envision him pulling a favorable stalking trip Saturday.
Actually, I’m looking for a repeat of the Santa Anita Derby result and picked Bolt d’Oro second. Magnum Moon, who I think also is special, is only my third choice because that’s how deep this Derby is, and I took Hofburg fourth as a price consideration for vertical wagers. Hofburg was my upsetter in the Florida Derby, and though he had to settle for second, he ran well and has lots of room for another big step forward.