Watchmaker: Sometimes the chalk is the pick

I try to avoid taking prohibitive favorites coming off perfect-trip wins, but I will make an exception for California Chrome.

California Chrome was clearly best in winning the Kentucky Derby, demonstrating yet again that he is, at least at this point, decidedly superior to his contemporaries. He has now dominated in his last five starts.

Although it is true that California Chrome had a great trip in the Derby, stalking a pace from close range that was not nearly as fast as projected, he is in line for another sweet trip Saturday. Social Inclusion, Bayern, Pablo Del Monte, and General a Rod all figure to be active participants in the Preakness pace. The versatile California Chrome should be sitting just off them and will be in position to make best use of the upper-stretch turn of foot he has employed to devastating effect recently to put his fields away.

Finally, even at odds of around 2-5 I feel I can pick California Chrome because I went with him in the Derby. I suspect you’ll find that most public handicappers who picked California Chrome in the Derby probably will feel they can go back to him Saturday because they aren’t jumping onto his bandwagon. Conversely, many public handicappers who picked against California Chrome in the Derby likely will pick against him again because they don’t want to get on board now, not when his odds are miniscule.

I like Ride On Curlin to finish second. Ride On Curlin suffered a ridiculous trip in the Kentucky Derby, allowing virtually everyone else a head start just so that he could be angled over sharply to the rail. This, ironically, for a horse who might prefer to run outside of opponents. Then, after finding considerable traffic on the rail, Ride On Curlin was angled out widest of all in upper stretch and actually finished well. He can pick up plenty of pieces here late with a more helpful ride.

Social Inclusion is immensely talented and showed more substance when third in the Wood Memorial than he did in romps in his first two starts. He might still be a few races away from realizing his full potential, but is thought to be the best of the pure speeds.

General a Rod was one of several who had a tough trip in the Derby. I question whether he really stayed a shorter distance when third in the nine-furlong Florida Derby two starts back, but he has at least been competitive with good company.

Bayern shouldn’t have struggled the way he did with weaker in the Derby Trial, but has always been highly regarded.

Dynamic Impact got a good Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Illinois Derby, but the horse he nosed doesn’t want to win.