Watchmaker: Several live longshots in Kentucky Oaks

Remember last year, a couple of days before the Kentucky Derby, when some folks were saying that the best 3-year-old in the country wasn’t in the Derby, but was in the Kentucky Oaks instead? Remember how some at that time thought Untapable was better than her male counterparts?

Well, we have no such talk this year. Almost everyone is in agreement that this is as strong a Kentucky Derby as we have seen in many moons, with an especially high concentration of quality at the top, thanks to American Pharoah, Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Materiality, and Upstart. We don’t know about Mubtaahij yet, but he could be up there, and you could even include Firing Line and Frosted, too, if you wanted. But you get the point. At this moment in time, going into the Derby, this is a terrific group.

Unfortunately, no one is saying the same about the fillies who will contest Friday’s Kentucky Oaks. Oh, there are some nice horses in this group. But none of them, at this stage, can be mentioned in the same breath with such recent Oaks winners as Untapable and Rachel Alexandra, let alone be considered part of one of the best Oaks fields in years.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

But unlike the Derby, which could easily produce a chalk result, this Oaks looks to me like a potentially rewarding betting race. With no strong group at the top to overwhelm everyone else in the field, there are some price horses who have very live shots in this Oaks.

That isn’t to say the favorites won’t take at least some beating. The top four in this Oaks, in points, if not odds order, are Condo Commando, I’m a Chatterbox, Stellar Wind, and Birdatthewire. No one would fall off their chair if any one of those four scored on Friday. But the Oaks winner certainly doesn’t have to come from this quartet, either.

I have been harsh when it comes to Condo Commando. But I have been a critic because her two big stakes wins last year in the Spinaway and Demoiselle were aided by powerful track biases, and her two wins this year in the Busher and Gazelle were achieved after cruising on easy early leads. Condo Commando has been extremely fortunate. At some point, everything is not going to go her way, and I’m skeptical she will be as successful when races don’t unfold so favorably for her.

Speaking of track bias, Birdatthewire rode a huge one when she won the Gulfstream Park Oaks last time at the height of the profound dead-rail main track period in Hallandale Beach. It is against my nature to go with a horse whose biggest career win was so bias-enhanced. And it doesn’t help that when she won the Forward Gal three starts back, Birdatthewire capitalized on a total pace collapse.

I’m a Chatterbox will likely be the Oaks favorite off her sweep of the three-race route series at Fair Grounds, in which she was much the best every time. I’m a Chatterbox is versatile, too. She won the Silvberbulletday on the front end, came from way back in the Rachel Alexandra, and stalked in the Fair Grounds Oaks. I have no knock on her other than her three performances at Fair Grounds were just so dramatically better than anything she did before that it makes you wonder if that track had something to do with it. I know I’m a Chatterbox’s dramatic emergence also could have been due to the switch to Larry Jones’s barn, or the fact that she turned 3 and might just have simply improved. But I have had less reason to take a shot against a favorite.

Stellar Wind is very much the West Coast version of I’m a Chatterbox. She turned 3, was transferred to John Sadler, shipped to Santa Anita, and on a surface new to her, showed dramatic improvement dominating the Santa Ysabel and Santa Anita Oaks, the latter possibly with the assistance of a track bias. I still think Stellar Wind is dangerous, and I will be using her on the front end of whatever I do wagering-wise in the Oaks. But the same questions that apply to I’m a Chatterbox apply to Stellar Wind, too.

Enter Luminance, Puca, and Eskenformoney. No one is talking much about these three in context with the Oaks, and that’s fine with me, because these are the ones who will be square prices and have legitimate upset potential. It is true all three finished second in their last starts to horses mentioned above, but with, I feel, legitimate excuses.

Luminance was beaten more than five lengths by Stellar Wind in the Santa Anita Oaks. I know that’s a big margin to turn around. But what I don’t know is, why was Luminance contesting the early pace in the Santa Anita Oaks, and a strong early pace, at that? That’s not how she wants to run. Luminance came from off the pace winning her first two starts, and with ample early speed in this Oaks, it would be smart for her to return Friday to the closing style that serves her best.

I like Puca for similar reasons. Puca was actually ahead of Condo Commando in the run to the first turn in the Gazelle early this month, which was dumbfounding, but also illustrative of just how slow the pace was that Condo Commando wound up controlling. Puca came from last to be beaten three lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last fall, and might have been right there if she wasn’t stopped in the stretch. Puca is a drop back, one-run closer, and there will be more than enough speed in to allow Puca to revert to her most effective approach.

Eskenformoney was beaten a little more than a length when second in the Gulfstream Oaks. However, as noted, the inside was dead that day. Everything was fine for Eskenformoney when she made her three- to four-wide sweep to the lead on the far turn. But after she went clear, Eskenformoney was allowed to move down to the dead inside. And not surprisingly, she predictably floundered, and was caught. In truth, I have doubts the Gulfstream Oaks fillies stack up favorably with the Santa Anita and Fair Grounds Oaks fillies. But I do know I want Eskenformoney over Birdatthewire.

Quick notes:

* The scary thing about American Pharoah is, unlike many horses, he works brilliantly in the morning and performs brilliantly in the afternoon. And by all accounts, his work Sunday morning at Churchill was exceptional. That said, I have been on the Dortmund bandwagon for a while now, and I see no reason whatsoever to get off it.

I was against Wicked Strong at odds-on in Saturday’s Excelsior (didn’t care for his 4-year-old bow, question if he’s a true 10-furlong horse despite what he did last year), but his meek third was not encouraging. There is still lots of season left for Wicked Strong to get his mojo back, but he seems far removed from his best 3-year-old form right now. I’m avoiding him until he actually demonstrates improvement.

Blofeld was also a disappointment Saturday night with his third in the William Walker. You can’t blame the wet track; he won the Nashua last year in the mud. You can’t blame his inside trip, either, because he skimmed the rail when he won the Futurity. I’m inclined to be a bit more forgiving when it comes to Blofeld because he was making his first start since November. But if he is really the serious horse he threatens to be, he’s going to have to step it up significantly next time.