Watchmaker: Saratoga pick three for Friday, Aug. 1

I find the second half of Friday’s card at Saratoga to be tough, so I’ll offer a pick-three play on the day’s first three races that while admittedly on the chalky side, looks pretty solid to me.

First, let me answer a question I know a few readers will have. You might wonder: If I like a pick three right out of the box that’s a little on the chalky side, why not just extend the play to a pick five on the day’s first five races, especially when you can get some favorites in a pick five and still get paid decently. In most cases, I absolutely would. But Friday’s fourth race, to me, is no picnic. And I’m having a very hard time getting a handle on the fifth race, which means I’ll be sitting out the pick five, not to mention the early pick four.

Race 1 – It pains me to say it, but you have to use No Nukes. No Nukes easily was second best in his last two starts, his first two starts for trainer Jason Servis, earning Beyer Speed Figures that no one else in this field has come close to approaching. The problem with No Nukes is he has been a professional maiden, having racked up 18 starts without cracking the winner’s circle. Another cause for pause is that the horses who beat him in his two good-figure seconds did not come back to validate those Beyers in their subsequent outings. Still, No Nukes might be a new horse for Servis, and you have to use him.

But I’m going to use Jacob’s Here in equal strength. I’m not certain how much ability Jacob’s Here really has; however, I do know the two straight maiden races he made his first two career starts in recently at Churchill Downs were legitimately strong maiden races. And now, Jacob’s Here not only is taking the huge class drop into maiden claimers, he also is dropping in with New York-breds.

I’m also going to use Fidelius and The Mooche in lesser strength. Fidelius makes his first start for a tag for a George Weaver barn that has done little wrong lately, and if the weather holds, this also will be Fidelius’ first attempt on a dry dirt track. The Mooche, who showed flashes of ability on turf, moves to dirt for a barn that excels at the surface switch.

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Race 2 – Point to the Wild should win this race as a heavy favorite. I don’t see any reason to fight it, and she’s a bingo free space to me. The high-percentage Brad Cox barn essentially is running Point to the Wild down everyone’s throats by running her back for the same $25,000 tag she just romped for at Ellis, and why not? Cox claimed Point to the Wild for only $10,000 last fall and has since won 4 of 8 starts with her, plus two seconds, one of which came in the off-the-turf Unbridled Sidney Stakes. Point to the Wild can win from up close or well off the pace, and she just looks much better than this group. If you want her, claim her. If not, the barn will continue to run her in spots where she is highly likely to win.

Race 3 – This will be one of the more closely watched maiden special-weight routes of the meet because of Samantha Nicole, the full sister to Rachel Alexandra. I only hope the betting public goes nuts on Samantha Nicole off her lineage because while she makes her first start for Kiaran McLaughlin (a huge move numbers-wise), she will have to run a lot better than her fair second in her only start last winter at Fair Grounds.

Cali Star is very obvious here and is my principal push. There are times to be concerned with maidens who finish second in three straight races as Cali Star has because it can be an indication of a character flaw. But Cali Star has finished second to one nice filly after another. In fact, the last three to beat Cali Star all came back either to beat winners or to run well against them.

In lesser strength, I also will use Twenty in One. Twenty in One was a much-improved second last time out in her first start on a dry dirt track to a filly who won an allowance race in her next start.