Watchmaker: Saratoga pick four play for Wednesday, July 30

Wednesday’s late pick four sequence at Saratoga, starting in race 7, is interesting. Let’s take a swing at it.

Race 7 – Sundae School hit the board in arguably tougher starter allowance races in her last three starts, and off those outings alone, she would loom large over this field. However, those performances do not exist in a vacuum. With a record of 1-4-5 from 17 career starts for Sundae School, it is fair to question her will to win. She must be used, but can’t be trusted. I’ll also use Wine Burglar, who will be helped by the stronger pace she gets Wednesday than she had last time; Benny’s Bullet, first start off the claim Wednesday for a sharp outfit, and who adds blinkers; and Lonely Teardrops, who romped last time in her first career start in a claimer.

As backups, I’ll also throw in Ear D’ Rhythm off the huge class drop, but whose form is suspect, and Casey Roo, another making her first start off the claim.

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A’s: Benny’s Bullet, Lonely Teardrops, Sundae School, Wine Burglar
B’s: None
C’s: Casey Roo, Ear D’ Rhythm

Race 8 – I’m singling La Madrina. La Madrina impressed romping in her debut at Gulfstream, beating, among others, Thirteen Arrows, who looked like a stakes filly winning her next two starts. In her second and most recent start, La Madrina finished third as the favorite at Belmont in an effort that was better than it looks on paper. La Madrina was much too close to the early lead in an unsuccessful attempt to keep the loose-on-the-lead and stakes-class Ultimate Shopper honest up front. And La Madrina’s early efforts cost her the place, which she lost late to Very Cherry Candy, who came back to win an allowance race at Belmont in her next start with an 88 Beyer. La Madrina is in an easier spot here, and there is enough pace to allow her to return to her more effective off-the-pace approach.

A’s: La Madrina
B’s: None
C’s: None

Race 9 – This edition of the Coronation Cup, a turf sprint for 3-year-old fillies, is tricky. There is a ton of early speed on paper, which figures to set the race up for horses like Stars Above Me, a first-time U.S. and first-time Lasix for Graham Motion, who has fantastic numbers in this area, and Scatcapade, who even if she looks soft on paper, can close. But there is liable to be a speed horse or two in here who will demonstrate a newfound ability to rate. I sense that Burn Control might be one. She has a license to like turf, and she did re-rally most recently when she made it 2 for 2 at Parx.

As backups, I’ll use Fat Kat, who makes her first grass start for a barn that certainly knows a turf horse when it sees one; Hot Squeeze, who is 2 for 2 turf sprinting at Saratoga; and Elena Strikes. My sense is Elena Strikes is being moved to turf because there aren’t many other good options for her. She’s not a stakes filly sprinting on dirt, but would be tough if able to replicate her allowance win on dirt most recently on turf.

A’s: Burn Control, Scatcapade, Stars Above Me
B’s: None
C’s: Hot Squeeze, Fat Kat, Elena Strikes

Race 10 – I would hope to be alive here with wide coverage, because I think anything could happen in this maiden turf route. Jimmy Soul’s last two efforts win this and he would be a must-use if he gets in from the also-eligible list. However, he would also be burdened with a tough, outside post. Candir also drew wide, but is appealing moving to turf being a half to the Grade 1-placed Al Khali. The Todd Pletcher firster Same As is out of a stakes winner on turf. And Uptown Joe should improve second start off the six-month layoff.

But I’d also like to have First Bid and Troubled Waters, who both go to the turf for the first time; Identity Crisis cutting back to a better distance; Kato with blinkers on; Beau Knows, who must have some turf foot if this barn is moving this dirt-bred colt to grass; and the firsters Throckmorton, and Alexahente.

A’s: Same As, Uptown Joe, Candir, Jimmy Soul (if he gets in)
B’s: None
C’s: Throckmorton, Beau Knows, Alexahente, Troubled Waters, Kato, First Bid, Identity Crisis