Watchmaker: Saratoga pick four play for Saturday, Aug. 23

With all the opportunities available on Saturday’s Travers card at Saratoga, the one that will have everyone’s attention is the all-stakes pick four beginning in race 9 and culminating with the Travers. I believe in giving the people what they want, so let’s go after that one.

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Race 9, the Ballston Spa – Filimbi was impressive both visually and against the clock when she won the De La Rose Stakes earlier this month, a race that was of graded stakes quality even if it was technically a restricted stakes. Filimbi will be tough to beat as she seeks her third straight victory, but I’m going to use two others here in equal strength – Abaco and Strathnaver.

Despite a slow early pace that did not flatter her closing style, Abaco was a gaining fourth after a wide trip in the Diana. She’s been competitive in every start since last fall, and will like the footing, which should have some give to it. I liked Strathnaver in the Diana, but she didn’t fire after being too close to those slow early fractions. She was very good just missing in the Just a Game two starts back, and I’m not giving up on her yet.

As for Dayatthespa, she was a creditable second in the De La Rose off an eight-month layoff. But I wonder how much better she’s really going to get off that effort, and I’m using her only defensively.

A’s: Abaco, Strathnaver, Filimbi
B’s: None
C’s: Dayatthespa

Race 10, the King’s Bishop – This was one of the races I used in my Weekend Warrior column this week, and I took a shot with C. Zee. I’m hoping he will improve on a solid second in the Amsterdam earlier in the meet by returning to a more effective off-the-pace style. But I wouldn’t stand alone with him for pick four purposes. I will also use Amsterdam winner Coup de Grace, and The Big Beast, a most impressive winner in the race before the Amsterdam.

I’ll also throw in Wildcat Red and Myositis Dan as backups. Wildcat Red is finally getting back to sprinting, and it is very possible that is what he has wanted to do all along. But Wildcat Red might turn out to be a universal wise guy horse, and that can be a huge obstacle to overcome. Myositis Dan can close, and is a price worth including in case this race totally falls apart late.

A’s: C. Zee, The Big Beast, Coup de Grace
B’s: Wildcat Red
C’s: Myositis Dan

Race 11, the Ballerina – I will admit, I’m having a hard time with this race. I’m inclined to go against the two coming out of the Shine Again – Better Lucky and My Miss Aurelia – because Shine Again runner up Grace Hall (now injured) was tons the best that day. But I think this race sets up well for a closer like Better Lucky, and I will have to use her prominently even if I don’t love her.

There are four New York-breds in this Grade 1 event, and they all are legitimate contenders. I’m against one of them, La Verdad, because she’s subject to pace pressure, and I believe six furlongs, not seven furlongs, is her best game. But I like the other three – Artemis Agrotera, a big winner in her return; Willet, also a nice winner earlier in the meet and who fits the pace scenario; and especially Hot Stones, who takes an appealing cut back in distance after a solid third in the nine-furlong Shuvee Handicap.

Heck, I even think Kipling’s Joy, the longest shot on the morning line, has a chance. Kipling’s Joy is trained by Marty Wolfson, whose 11 starters at Saratoga the last five years were all in graded stakes, and whose three winners here were all Grade 1 scores. Kipling’s Joy ships in from Gulfstream, where deep closers like her never have the best of it, and she might have a more effective late kick here.

A’s: Artemis Agrotera, Better Lucky, Willet, Hot Stones
B’s: None
C’s: Kipling’s Joy, My Miss Aurelia

Race 12, the Travers – This was my lead race in this week’s Warrior column, and I like Tonalist. To me, Tonalist was merely prepping when second in the Jim Dandy. He has trained more aggressively for this, his goal since he won the Belmont Stakes, and I expect a big step forward.

I do, however, respect Jim Dandy winner Wicked Strong, who showed vast improvement in a number of ways with blinkers on. And I’m also throwing in Mr Speaker, who is a better horse now than he was the only time he tried dirt, and who will get the trip.

As for Bayern, I really liked him when he won the Haskell. But he did capitalize on a speed bias that day, routes here at Saratoga are not cheaply won, and he is a big question mark going 10 furlongs.

A’s: Tonalist
B’s: Wicked Strong
C’s: Mr Speaker