Watchmaker: Saratoga pick four play for Friday, Aug. 15

The late pick 4 is the most appealing sequence to me on Friday’s Saratoga card, so let’s go after it.

Race 7 – Off sharp seconds in his last three starts, Decisive Edge will be the favorite in this 9 1/2-furlong maiden race on the Mellon turf, and you have to use him because he just might be significantly better than anyone else in this field. But just because you have to use him, that doesn’t mean you have to trust him, and I don’t. When a horse like this one strings a few close second-place finishes together, it raises the question of the will to win, especially when you’re talking about a horse who has never won. I’m also pushing Trecastle, who is lightly raced, has license to improve, and was fifth last time in what I thought was a strongly run maiden event.

For backups, I’ll use De Facto, who probably really is turf meant even if he improved on dirt in his last two; Iron Works, who showed some flashes last year; Northeast Bound because he will like getting back on turf; and Shopping Spree, who moves to grass being out of a mare who was a stakes winner on turf.

A’s: Trecastle, Decisive Edge
B’s: None
C’s: De Facto, Iron Works, Northeast Bound, Shopping Spree

:: Build your pick four ticket with DRF TicketMaker

Race 8 – Trainer Christophe Clement’s hand in this race already was strong with his late-running pair of Tabreed, who was Grade 3 stakes placed last year and has every right to improve second start off a long layoff, and Maximova, who was a close third earlier in the meet against a better allowance field. But both look even more formidable when you consider that there should be an honest pace to set them up. The only other one I could consider using is Remember Then, overmatched last time out but whose second in her seasonal bow two back gives her a shot.

A’s: Tabreed, Maximova
B’s: Remember Then
C’s: None

Race 9 – This is the John Morrissey Stakes for New York-breds, and I like Big Business best here. Big Business was huge winning two starts back, and he showed how good he is right now by almost winning the Evan Shipman most recently at a nine-furlong distance that is beyond his best. The cut back to a sprint Friday suits him. And you have to use Moonlight Song off the return to statebred competition after setting the early pace in the Belmont Sprint Championship.

The issue I have in this race concerns Saratoga Snacks, of whom I have been an unabashed fan. I’m not concerned with his seven-month layoff because Saratoga Snacks repeatedly has run well fresh before. My concern is the barn switch from Gary Sciacca to Bill Mott. Now, 99 times out of 100, that would be a change that wouldn’t scare anyone off. But Sciacca did terrific work with Saratoga Snacks over an extended period of time, and you could wonder if Mott has this one’s hole cards yet.

I’m still using Saratoga Snacks as a backup along with Weekend Hideaway, who is running well even if his last two fine efforts came with racing with the way the track was playing.

A’s: Moonlight Song, Big Business
B’s: Saratoga Snacks
C’s: Weekend Hideaway

Race 10 – The key to my pick four play is trying to beat the favorite, Malibu Queen. Malibu Queen is dropping, and she has the best Beyers. But she also has had many chances to get her second career win and has gone to lengths to find ways to lose. Maybe she won’t be able to help herself in this spot and win, but she’s just not my kind of horse.

There’s a lot of strength on the also-eligible list, and I would feature the first AE, Life’s a Stage, if she’s able to draw in. She is taking a significant class drop while making her first start for a Phil Serpe barn that has been live this meet. In the body of the race, my main horse is Sultry Warrior, who would be in the easiest turf race she has ever been in and goes now for Tom Proctor.

I’ll take a couple of bombers as backups: Great Cross because she’s suitably moving back to turf; Kate Is a Ten, who won on Saratoga turf last summer; and Barbara’s Smile on the chance she’ll wake up off the claim.

A’s: Sultry Warrior, Life’s a Stage (if she draws in)
B’s: None
C’s: Great Cross, Kate Is a Ten, Barbara’s Smile