Watchmaker: Saratoga pick five play for Friday, July 18

Friday’s opening-day card at Saratoga is deep and very playable, with several intriguing multi-race exotic sequences. But I’m going to try and beat the gate for the meet with a pick five play, encompassing races 1 through 5.

Race 1 – Goodnewsisnonews is one of those Mike Repole dropdowns we’ve seen on several occasions at Saratoga in recent years, a big drop trying to get the owner to the winner’s circle. But while Goodnewsisnonews can win while suitably moving from turf to dirt, I don’t totally trust him. His maiden win at Monmouth two back was slow. I’m interested in Grandpa Len, another suitably moving from turf to dirt second time off a long layoff, and King of Broadway, another big class dropper whose recent races are more interesting than Goodnewsisnonews’s. Winter Games, who has some okay back races, and Kowboy Boots, a Ramsey-Maker-Castellano production, can be used as backups.

A’s: King of Broadway, Grandpa Len, Goodnewsisnonews
B’s: None
C’s: Kowboy Boots, Winter Games

Race 2 – Everyone knows that Todd Pletcher 2-year-old first-time starters are deadly at Saratoga, but his Overspending is stuck here on the also-eligible list. She would have to be used if she gets in. I also would have to use By the Moon, who reeks of well-meant; Aimone, whose local works appear good; Vinolicious, because she’s a Wesley Ward firster; and Wall Street Lady, out of respect for Tony Dutrow. Lady of Victory is another interesting firster, but I’m guessing she belongs as a backup.

A’s: By the Moon, Vinolicious, Wall Street Lady, and, if she draws in, Overspending
B’s: Aimone
C’s: Lady of Victory

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Race 3 – Fashion Alert was most impressive winning the Astoria in her debut and must be used, even if she will be odds on in this, the Schuylerville. However, I’m going to use Tulira’s Star in equal strength. I’m usually skeptical of big Beyer Speed Figures in 4 1/2-furlong baby races like Tulira’s Star earned in her debut, because not enough of those races are run to get a good handle on them. But Tulira’s Star’s decisive victory got a huge boost when runner-up La Grange came back to dominate the Cinderella Stakes last Sunday at Los Alamitos.

A’s: Tulira’s Star, Fashion Alert
B’s: None
C’s: None

Race 4 – I’m singling Mumtaazah. She was well bet in one of those deceptively strong straight maiden races you find at Aqueduct in the fall in her only start, and despite racing wide and greenly, she was a solid second to Onlyforyou, who went on to win all four of her starts, including two Grade 2 stakes, before meeting a sad end. Mumtaazah is now first-time Lasix, a big move for the Kiaran McLaughlin barn.

A’s: Mumtaazah
B’s: None
C’s: None

Race 5 – Though he might be a question stretching out to 11 furlongs, there is a distinct possibility that Can’thelpbelieving lays over this field off his fine efforts against some of the best 3-year-old male turf horses around. Still, I would use Papy in equal strength because he’s had excuses in his recent starts and will love the route. Special Agent, pace compromised in his last, also can be used, as can My Afleet as a backup because he might get the relaxed trip he’s looking for.

A’s: Can’thelpbelieving, Papy
B’s: Special Agent
C’s: My Afleet