Watchmaker: Robert Bruce atop male turf division – for now

It’s Robert Bruce’s turn atop our male turf division.

This week, anyway.

The U.S. male turf division has been a game of musical chairs all year, so it remains to be seen if Robert Bruce, winner of Saturday’s Grade 1 Arlington Million, can stop the music and bring some stability to the situation. It’s difficult mustering any confidence that he will, and that’s not meant as a knock on Robert Bruce. It’s more of a general observation that this division has conditioned us to the point where you can’t (and shouldn’t) have any real expectations.

At least Robert Bruce is now 2 for 3 this year in this country for trainer Chad Brown after winning himself out of competition last year in his native Chile. He won the Grade 3 Fort Marcy at Belmont in his U.S. debut, beating Spring Quality, who came back to upset the Manhattan but was scratched out of the Million after failing to satisfactorily ship to Chicago.

Robert Bruce then followed the pattern by disappointing when sixth in the Manhattan. Sure, he didn’t have the smoothest of trips that day, but several others in the Manhattan had worse goes of it. But to his credit, Robert Bruce rebounded with a determined victory on Saturday, outfinishing barn mate Almanaar, which is no small feat since Almanaar has a potent closing kick himself.

Still, to put these matters into perspective, Catcho En Die was fourth under the wire in the Million (he was subsequently moved up to third on the disqualification of third-place finisher Century Dream), and he certainly would have been closer as he was rallying in concert with Almanaar when he was impeded. Catcho En Die was claimed for $40,000 in April.

The good news for Robert Bruce is he is in an even better position than Beach Patrol (also trained by Brown) was in after Beach Patrol won last year’s Million. The Million was Beach Patrol’s first stakes win of 2017 – remember, Robert Bruce already has another stakes win this year – but he came back with a big win in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, and he would have come away with a divisional Eclipse Award had he not fallen a half-length short when second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Robert Bruce has these races in front of him, and in a turf division weakened by the uncertain status of Oscar Performance, who was eased in the stretch of the Million, and Yoshida, who entered Saturday as perhaps the shaky leader of this division off his Turf Classic victory on the Kentucky Derby undercard but lost his ranking with an empty fifth-place finish in Saratoga’s Grade 1 Fourstardave.

Beach Patrol lost his claim to a 2017 divisional title when World Approval (who, like Beach Patrol, has been a total nonfactor this year) capped a three-race Grade 1 stakes winning streak that began in the Fourstardave with a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. One wonders if Voodoo Song, the upset winner of Saturday’s renewal of the Fourstardave, might have designs on playing World Approval to Robert Bruce’s Beach Patrol.

One thing that can absolutely be said about Voodoo Song is no one in his division has more heart than he does. Voodoo Song, who got loose early when Heart to Heart was taken back but is faster early than Heart to Heart anyway, was collared and looked beaten for certain in deep stretch of the Fourstardave by Delta Prince. But Voodoo Song just would not lose and fought back with a compelling display of courage to gain the decision.

The thing about Voodoo Song is, if he is to emulate World Approval, he must find a way to run as well as he did Saturday on other turf courses, because the Breeders’ Cup will not be at Saratoga (a Breeders’ Cup in New York? How quaint). Voodoo Song is now 5 for 5 on Saratoga’s turf courses but is 3 for 7 on turf courses elsewhere.

Sure, Voodoo Song isn’t bad at all on other turf courses, but he simply isn’t nearly as good elsewhere as he is at the Spa. And while Saratoga is a nice place to pick if you’re going to be a horse for a course, Voodoo Song has some work to do out of state if he is to be a true national player in his division.

Saturday notes:

• While our male turf division is a bit of a mess, there is no such ambiguity in our female turf division. I had Sistercharlie, Fourstar Crook, A Raving Beauty, and Santa Monica (all of whom, by the way, are trained by Brown) as my top four in last week’s Watchmaker Watch, my weekly divisional rankings. And order was maintained in Arlington’s Grade 1 Beverly D. as Sistercharlie and Fourstar Crook ran one-two, clearly better than the rest, with Brown’s other two entrants finishing third and fifth.

It was noteworthy that Sistercharlie, who can, at times, fall too far back in the early running, was within easy striking distance off a slow pace from the outset of the Beverly D. If Sistercharlie can position herself this way on a consistent basis, she will no longer be vulnerable to slow paces, and that will make her only more formidable. And that’s bad news for the rest of this group.

• Brown almost made off with all three of Arlington’s Grade 1 turf stakes, but Analyze It fell a neck short in the Secretariat of holding off longshot Carrick, who could have been claimed for $40,000 out of his debut at Belmont in May.

I have a theory on Analyze It. I believe he is a miler through and through, and I suspect he has been running so well in narrowly missing in races like the 10-furlong Secretariat and Belmont Derby, and the nine-furlong Pennine Ridge, only because he is so darn good. It’s a gut feeling, but if Analyze It’s connections elect to cut him back to distances around one mile, I really think we would see something special.

• My Watchmaker Watch 2-year-old rankings will debut Monday online. I note this only because I already had Instagrand on top of the 2-year-old male division before the Best Pal at Del Mar, which is no great shakes as he was brilliant in winning his debut. Still, I felt a lot better about that decision after Instagrand ran away with the Best Pal. Wow, that was impressive.

• The New York-breds Diversify and Mind Your Biscuits ran one-two in last week’s Whitney; Voodoo Song is a New York-bred; Sue’s Fortune, winner of the Grade 2 Adirondack on the Fourstardave undercard, is a New York-bred (as was Fourstardave, for that matter); and Beverly D. runner up Fourstar Crook is also a New York-bred.

In other words, it is no longer news when New York-breds do good things in open company. That said, just because New York-breds are really good, it doesn’t mean two out of every three New York Racing Association cards should end with a New York-bred maiden claimer.