Watchmaker: Quick turnaround the question for American Pharoah

They ran four graded stakes races Saturday at Belmont Park, and yet the first topic brought up by the few folks I spent the day there with was American Pharoah and whether he could do it again in the Preakness and come to the Belmont Stakes with a shot of sweeping the Triple Crown. It says something about American Pharoah that he has captured the imagination of even hardened horseplayers.

It also says something about American Pharoah that the main question for him in the Preakness has absolutely nothing to do with whether he’s good enough. He settled that with his victory in the Kentucky Derby, which was his fifth straight graded stakes victory, four being Grade 1s, and in which he was simply the best.

No, the big question for American Pharoah in the Preakness is, after prevailing in what was the most draining outing of his career by far, can he wheel back in only two weeks, make his third start in five weeks, and deliver a representative performance?

American Pharoah can eat and train famously in the days leading up to Saturday and give every indication that he has rebounded to the point where he will be a reasonable facsimile of himself at Pimlico. But it is one of the vagaries of this game that no one will really know for certain until the gate for the Preakness opens and American Pharoah actually runs. And as a horseplayer, you have to ask yourself if you want to take 4-5 or less that the answer will be “yes” or if you even want to get involved in betting the Preakness to any serious degree at all.

The good news for American Pharoah is that all the other horses running back in the Preakness from the Derby have the same quick turnaround to deal with, and American Pharoah doesn’t have to close a competitive gap like those others do. Perhaps no horse coming out of the Derby might be more affected by the quick turnaround than runner-up Firing Line, who before Churchill was known for thriving with lots of time between starts.

The news gets even better for American Pharoah when you consider that the “new shooters” in the Preakness who come in relatively fresher are led by a long ways by Divining Rod. Divining Rod was very good winning the Lexington in his last start and is on the upswing, but he’s just not in the same league with American Pharoah, or Firing Line, or Derby third-place finisher Dortmund, for that matter.

Perhaps the biggest edge American Pharoah has at successfully handling quick Derby to Preakness turnaround is his trainer, Bob Baffert. Baffert has won the Preakness five times, with Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, Point Given in 2001, War Emblem in 2002, and Looking At Lucky in 2010. All five ran two weeks earlier in the Derby. Three of them – Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and War Emblem – won the Derby. Point Given was one of the most mysterious losers in the Derby in recent memory, and Lookin At Lucky was dealt an impossible Derby hand when he drew the rail. Obviously, Baffert knows how to negotiate this particular two-week turnaround. You could even say he specializes at it.

Contrast that with trainer Todd Pletcher’s record at fast turnarounds like this at this level, which is a pertinent topic considering his Materiality, if he indeed goes to the Preakness, is a very appealing alternative if you want to try to beat American Pharoah.

Materialty completely missed the break in the Derby and found himself much, much farther back early than he ever had been before. That could have meant disaster for a colt who had raced only three times before. But despite his inexperience and impossible position, Materiality finished well to be sixth, and he galloped out well past the finish in the manner of one who never really had a chance to run during the race. All of that was a giant feather in Materiality’s cap. And don’t forget, the 110 Beyer Speed Figure Materiality earned winning the Florida Derby is the highest of all of those pointing to the Preakness, including American Pharoah.

But unlike Baffert, running good horses back in just two weeks is just not Pletcher’s thing, and that is in no way a knock on him. In fact, according to Formulator, over the last five years, Pletcher has started only three horses in graded stakes races on the dirt who were running back in 14 days or less, and all lost.

The first was Super Saver in 2010, who ran back in the Preakness as the 9-5 favorite after winning the Kentucky Derby. Super Saver finished eighth, beaten 11 1/2 lengths in the Preakness, and raced only twice more, finishing fourth in the Haskell and 10th in the Travers.

The second was Master Lightning in 2014, who wheeled back quickly off a first-level allowance win at Aqueduct to run in the Jerome, in which he finish seventh, beaten 6 1/2 lengths. Master Lightning was subsequently claimed for $75,000 three losing starts later.

The third and most recent was Uninfluenced, who finished seventh, beaten 15 lengths, in the Gotham this past March soon after a narrowly beaten second in a straight maiden race. Uninfluenced has not raced since.

Now, you might say a sample of three is tiny and might mean nothing about Materiality’s chances if he runs back in the Preakness, and you might be right. However, the fact that Pletcher had only three such starters over a five-year period when he sent out a total of 1,039 horses to make 4,888 starts (these are Formulator statistics as of Sunday morning) says something more than this is something Pletcher isn’t good at. It says it is something he doesn’t want to do. Period.

Quick Saturday notes

** Pletcher won the Peter Pan Saturday, although not with Two Weeks Off, the one many thought would be the one. It was instead Madefromlucky, who scored with an outside sweep. Madefromlucky was absolutely drilled by American Pharoah in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby in his last two starts, so you could say his Peter Pan win flattered the Kentucky Derby winner, as if he needed any more flattery.

** I have no inclination to find excuses for Warren’s Veneda’s third at 1-10 in the Vanity. The crawling early pace was certainly no good for a deep closer like her. But she was even for the lead or narrowly in front on the far turn, and she shouldn’t have lost from there, slow pace or not.

** You would have to have a heart of stone not to be happy for Twilight Eclipse for finally getting that Grade 1 win in the Man o’ War. He had just been too competitive at too high a level for too long not to have one like this finally go his way. That said, Imagining was brutalized in the early stages of the Man o’ War, eventually finding himself at the back of the pack instead of walking on the lead like he was supposed to be. I’m just throwing this one out for Imagining.

** It will be fun following Bal a Bali, who won the American Stakes in his U.S. debut. Bal a Bali swept the Triple Crown in his native Brazil and overcame laminitis last summer. He was 11 for 12 in Brazil, and his last three scores all came going 1 1/2 miles. So he was probably just getting warmed up going the mile of the American.