Watchmaker: Pick three play at Saratoga for Saturday, Aug. 1
The middle portion of New York Racing Association cards are, for me, often soft spots between the pick five and early pick four, and the late pick four. Not so at Saratoga on Saturday. I like the pick three sequence starting in race 5 because I think we can get some real prices home in legs two and three.
Race 5, Amsterdam Stakes – Barbados was one of my picks in this week’s Weekend Warrior column, and he is my lone “A” horse here Barbados ran very well finishing second in the recent Carry Back Stakes, even if he was the beaten favorite as it was his first start after being away four months because of minor knee surgery. Barbados, who won the Spectacular Bid and Hutcheson early this year before his injury in his first starts on dirt, will improve off the Carry Back, and he really doesn’t have to improve that much. March, winner of the Woody Stephens and Bay Shore in his last two starts, and Holy Boss, winner of the Chick Lang and Bachelor in his last two outings, are my two backups.
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Race 6 – This is a deep first- level allowance race on the inner turf course, and what’s noteworthy about it is, there is plenty of pace on paper in the body of the race. So in addition to the logical Dreaming of Gold, who came from way back to get his overdue maiden victory most recently, I’m using as “A’s” longshots Rock Eagle and Johnson City Kid, who were both compromised by slow paces in their last starts, and who both can be much more effective if they get honest splits to rally into. My other main horse is Furyofthenorsemen, who is second off a layoff (note how big he ran second time out last year), and who tries turf being out of a mare who was a graded stakes performer on grass.
My backups here are Overcontrol, who tries turf for the first time, but who has two recent works over it; Lone Trader, who is starting to get the hang of rating effectively; and Wayward Kitten, who has been away seven months, but who returns at the proper level.
Race 7 – This is yet another deep entry-level allowance race on turf, one that also has some intriguing price horses. I have a contract to bet Ocean Telegraph, but I’m convinced he has ability, he ran better than it looks on paper when fourth most recently, and it’s blinkers on time Saturday. Another is Generous Kitten, who won his last, albeit over an iffy field. But the more distance the better for this one, and he did take a lot of money in his debut last March at Gulfstream for smart connections, so there must be something there.
I’m using those two as mains along with the improving Fire Away, who beat a good next out winner in his maiden score last time, and Orange Grove, who narrowly missed in his U. S. bow two starts back, and who had no shot last time out from a tough post and with a crawling pace.
My backups in this race are Dynamic Decision, whose form is competitive even if he might lack the will to win; and Go Around and Request, who were on the board in a similar spot most recently.
Here’s the link to the play via DRF’s Ticketmaker: