Watchmaker: Pick three play for Saratoga on Friday, July 25
Charged with making a pick “something” play on a Friday Saratoga card that – while perfectly fine in terms of quality – just doesn’t move me, the pick-three sequence encompassing races 4, 5, and 6 is where I landed.
Race 4 – Noble Cornerstone will have his share of fans in this New York-bred second-level optional-claiming dirt sprint off two wins and a narrowly beaten second in his three career starts in statebred competition. But Noble Cornerstone, while talented, did seem to loaf on stretch leads in his last two and is meeting a significantly tougher group today. So I’m against him.
:: Build your pick three ticket with DRF TicketMaker
Horatio also moves into a tougher allowance condition after beating a suspect group in his last start. The difference with Horatio, however, is he looked very, very good winning. In fact, since moving into trainer Jimmy Toner’s barn two starts ago, Horatio has run the two best races of his life. He is a must use for me.
So is the very logical Jeter. In his first start off the David Jacobson claim last time out, Jeter was a gaining second to the even-money favorite in an optional claimer at Monmouth. He now moves back in with New York-breds.
I’m also using The Big Deluxe, who goes off the claim for an underrated barn after decisively beating open claimers last time out. That marked a return to top form for The Big Deluxe, who might find himself loose on the early lead here.
Although Horatio and Jeter will be lower prices than The Big Deluxe, I’ll use them in equal strength, trying to make something happen with The Big Deluxe.
Race 5 – This isn’t an especially strong $25,000 open-claiming turf sprint, making significant class droppers Animal Style and Stormy Rocit look all the tougher. Animal Style, in particular, will be a handful off his near miss in a much better turf sprint at Belmont in his most recent appearance, the form of which has been supported by the subsequent performances of several horses coming out of it. But Stormy Rocit makes his first career start for a tag Friday and is backed by a George Weaver barn that looks like it might be set to go off on one of its patented hot streaks.
I’ll also throw in two others – Decisive Move and Upward. Decisive Move has won turf sprints at Saratoga the last two years and has a license to improve off his recent seasonal bow and with the switch back to grass. Upward goes first off the claim for the ever-dangerous Jason Servis, and has back races that put him in the mix.
Although I’m going four deep, I will push the two big class droppers, Animal Style and Stormy Rocit, with a little additional push on Animal Style.
Race 6 – This is a very nice upper-level optional-claiming route on dirt. Bad Hombre and Abraham won their last starts, but I question whether they’re good enough. I wonder the same thing about the steady Balance of Power. Qualify has won his last three starts, but I think it’s noteworthy that the horse he edged last time out at Monmouth was only a $16,000 claim in April.
Only one of the Guilt Trip-Code West entry will start since Julien Leparoux is named on both, and I would have to use either one. But while Guilt Trip won the Grade 2 Strub last year, I hope it’s Code West who starts because I think he’s the better of the two right now. Code West was no match for the Whitney-bound Itsmyluckyday in stakes at Monmouth in his last two starts, but his second to him two back was a good effort.
However, it is Stephanoatsee whom I will be trying to get home. Stephanoatsee finished what on the surface looks like a blah fourth in his recent first start for trainer Nick Zito, but he ran into a buzz saw that day in Big Business. He wasn’t beaten that far for second, and that race was a one-turn mile. Stephanoatsee is much better around two turns, which he stretches back out to here, and Zito is off to a hot start at the meet.
I’ll use Stephanoatsee and whichever half of the Guilt Trip-Code West entry starts in equal strength.