Watchmaker: Pick three play for Aqueduct on Sunday, Nov. 23

When I do this “Pick X” feature for DRF.com, I try to go for something with the potential for a bigger payoff such as a pick five or a pick four. Unfortunately, I can’t do that for Sunday’s card at Aqueduct. Not with the way this card is constructed.

The fifth race of the day is a 2-year-old New York-bred maiden special-weight sprint, and eight of the 12 in the race are first-time starters. Yes, one of the four who have run (Sonora, who drew in from the also-eligible list) will be a handful. But this still is an issue for those inclined to play the pick five and/or the early pick four.

The pick five begins in the first race, and the early pick four begins in the second. That means, for the purposes of these wagers, that firster-loaded fifth race is totally hidden. You can’t even look at possible double payoffs to get a gauge on which first-time starters are taking money and might be live and which ones appear dead.

For that reason, I can’t advocate betting Sunday’s pick five or early pick four at Aqueduct, especially if you’re not able to spread significantly in the fifth race.

Likewise, Sunday’s ninth race is a straight maiden race on the turf for 2-year-old New York-breds, and seven of the 10 in the race are first-time starters. With the late pick four beginning in the sixth race, the ninth race is, repeat after me, totally hidden. I don’t want to be guessing, and I try to avoid spreading needlessly, so the late pick four is off the table for me, too.

As an aside, I know there many multi-race exotics players who are as frustrated as I am when tracks construct their cards this way. There really is no reason for a racing department as sharp as the New York Racing Association’s not to know better.

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So, the only sequence Sunday at Aqueduct that I do find playable is the pick three starting in race 6.

Race 6 – There are 11 in this New York-bred maiden-claiming sprint, but I’m comfortable using only two – Quit Smokin and Geraldine. Quit Smokin is obvious. She suitably switches from turf back to dirt, drops to the lowest level of her career, and the last two times she raced on dirt, she showed run against vastly better than she faces here.

Geraldine isn’t as obvious as Quit Smokin, but I’m using her in equal strength. Geraldine was third in her debut last year at Parx behind two next-out winners, horses that have since proven to be serviceable. She returned from a year’s absence last month at Laurel and finished second, ahead of two next-out winners. Last time out, Geraldine was overmatched against straight New York-bred maidens and also raced most of the way on a dead rail. Now, she drops in with statebred maiden claimers for the first time and looks very well meant to me.

Race 7 – I’ve got three main horses and three backups in this extended distance, first-level optional claimer on turf. My main horses are Request, who gets his first opportunity to go an extended distance he his bred to relish; Village Warrior, an unknown on turf but a much-improved, true distance performer who must be used in his current form; and Make a Decision, beaten a nose in a similar spot in his most recent appearance.

My backups here are Are We Not Men, 2 for 2 since the claim three starts back and improving; and two last-out maiden winners who look like they appreciate a distance of ground – Crown Thy Good and Social Affair.

Race 8 – Yet another New York-bred race here, this one an entry-level allowance sprint, and I’m using Ms. Sylvia A. as my main play, with My Girl Madison as my only backup.

Ms. Sylvia A. was a willing, if soundly beaten, second most recently behind a filly who came back to win her next start and has worked well since. There is plenty of pace in this race, even after four program scratches, and that also plays to Ms. Sylvia A.’s favor as she has shown the ability to close effectively.

My Girl Madison is one of the speeds, and she was hugely disappointing last time out when fourth of five in the slop as the favorite. However, My Girl Madison ran well two starts back when third behind Ms. Sylvia A. after contesting the pace. I like My Girl Madison’s outside position here and think she might rebound on a drier track.