Watchmaker: Pick three for Gulfstream on Saturday, March 12
Saturday’s card at Gulfstream, topped by two turf-sprint stakes, is light on quality early and punctuated late by the odd placement in race 10 of a straight maiden sprint that has nine first-time starters. While this race is not hidden for late pick four purposes – it is the second leg of that sequence – it is buried in the late pick five – it’s the third leg of that sequence – which is, frankly, disappointing.
In any case, one sequence I do like is the pick three that begins in race 7. This pick three also happens to be the first half of a Rainbow Pick 6 sequence that might have a massive carryover.
Race 7, the Silks Run Stakes
Albert Einstein said, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Now, you might be wondering, what in the world does this have to do with the first leg of this pick three? I’ll tell you.
Since December 2014, Power Alert and Amelia’s Wild Ride have raced against each other five times. In all five of those races, Power Alert finished ahead of Amelia’s Wild Ride. In several of those races, I bet Amelia’s Wild Ride against Power Alert, and I’ll do so again in this pick three. And that is because despite what some might consider overwhelming evidence to the contrary, I still believe Amelia’s Wild Ride is better than Power Alert. Crazy, huh?
The most recent meeting between these two came in last month’s Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint. Power Alert won that race by a neck over Amelia’s Wild Ride after a perfect trip, but Amelia’s Wild Ride lost significantly more ground than he was beaten due to a wide trip. This time, Amelia’s Wild Ride drew toward the inside and projects to sit a sweet inside pocket trip. And I think that will be enough for him to turn the tables on Power Alert. Really.
I’m also using Grand Bili as a main selection and Simon Bar Sinister as a backup. Grand Bili was an impressive winner of the Carry Back Stakes last summer, but his recent form is spotty, and he now moves to turf. In many instances, a surface switch like this could be taken as a sign of desperation by connections looking to get a once-good horse back on track. But I don’t think that’s the case here.
Grand Bili is by the fine grass sire City Zip and is out of Woodsmoke, who was a turf-sprint stakes winner. Instead of being a move of desperation, Grand Bili going to grass makes total sense.
As for Simon Bar Sinister, his win most recently and his third to Amelia’s Wild Ride two starts back in the Sunshine Millions Turf Sprint were the two best races of his life. He could capitalize if the speed comes back late and Amelia’s Wild Ride gets caught in traffic.
Race 8
This maiden-claiming turf route is a spread race for me, with three mains and four backups. My mains are Dangerous Bend and Classy O’Prado, who take the huge class drop in with maiden claimers for the first time after showing flashes against better, and the firster Brucarita, who has the right pedigree and hails from a barn that can pop with firsters going long on grass.
My backups are Zap Cat, Mav, Martini Kid, and Strong. Zap Cat and Mav also make their first start for tags but also make their first starts on turf. Martini Kid and Strong showed enough in their debuts in the same, but weaker, maiden claimer to be included.
Race 9
There are numbers in this second-level optional claimer on turf, but I’m comfortable using only two mains and one backup, none of whom are morning-line favorite Conquest Typhoon. I think the race in which Conquest Typhoon was the beaten even-money favorite last time was a softer spot than this, and he has too many second-place finishes in relation to victories for my liking.
My two mains are Tombelaine and Aripeka, and my backup is Granny’s Kitten.
Tombelaine got to within three-quarters of a length of the brilliant Gleneagles in Ireland as a 2-year-old and was beaten only four lengths by that opponent when fifth in last year’s Irish 2000 Guineas. Aripeka, Grade 1 stakes-placed last year, makes his second start off a long layoff. Aripeka has a history of running big in second starts off layoffs and is from a barn that is sharp with such horses.
Granny’s Kitten meets older opponents for the first time, but he ran well in a couple of stakes last year, and a case could be made that he was best when third in the Penn Mile.
Here’s the play, in main/backup format, with, as always, a press on the all-main ticket:
Race 7: 2,9/5
Race 8: 1,2,11/5,9,10,12
Race 9: 3,10/9