Watchmaker: Pick four play for Saratoga for Wednesday, Aug. 20

The late pick four is the multirace exotics sequence I find most appealing on Wednesday’s card at Saratoga, so here goes:

Race 7

Almost all of the grass fillies owner Martin Schwartz has sent here from Europe and placed with trainer Chad Brown have been serious runners, and Kenzadargent might well be the latest in that long line. Kenzadargent has two Group 3 seconds and a Group 2 third-place finish in France from her last four starts, and there is a distinct possibility that she might lay over this entry-level allowance field.

However, Kenzadargent also has a career record of 1-7-1 from 12 starts, and I could never stand alone with her because she might have character issues. And there are a couple of capable Americans in this race. Hardly ran well when fourth two back behind three next-out winners and stakes horses in the Sweetest Chant Stakes, and Fade to Black missed by a nose in her recent turf debut to a filly who came back to win at Saratoga on Monday with an 88 Beyer Speed Figure. Even Valseuse (decent form against stakes-level company), and Almurra (first-time Lasix for Kiaran McLaughlin, a huge move) can be used as backups.

A’s: Fade to Black, Hardly, Kenzadargent
B’s: None
C’s: Valseuse, Almurra

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Race 8

This New York-bred maiden turf sprint for 2-year-olds has a field of 10, six of whom are first-time starters. So, it’s a good thing this race falls in this spot in the sequence because you can gauge who is taking action by looking at the possible payoffs in the double that started in the seventh race.

That said, the Christophe Clement-trained Saratoga Dreamer, who has sharp works and a pedigree that just shouts “turf,” is a firster easy to zero in on. But I could use a couple of other firsters as backups.

I’ll use a few of those who have raced, but only one as an “A” horse – Banana Thief. Banana Thief finished second in his debut in an off-the-turf race in the slop. He now moves to turf being by Kitten’s Joy, out of a mare who won on grass, and being a full brother to a filly who won on turf. He should move way up off the surface switch.

A’s: Banana Thief, Saratoga Dreamer
B’s: None
C’s: Gear Jammer, Watergate, Navy Blue, Coastal Zip

Race 9

Storming Inti will be favored in this, the Better Talk Now Stakes, but I could only use him here in the most defensive way possible. Storming Inti doesn’t seem to be getting any better, and he doesn’t really pass horses, which is a problem considering there is a lot of other speed in this race.

I like Pure Sensation, Craftsman, and Heart to Heart. Pure Sensation had a lousy trip in the Quick Call Stakes in his turf debut most recently but won anyway, and did so after showing a new ability to rate. He is stretching out to a route, but I suspect he’s found his calling. Craftsman also showed a new ability to rate when he won the Shuk Memorial last time out, and his new style fits well with the projected pace scenario. Heart to Heart is a pace horse, but he ran giant in his first of only two turf starts and hails from a Brian Lynch barn that has been super sharp this meet shipping in from Woodbine.

A’s: Heart to Heart, Craftsman, Pure Sensation
B’s: None
C’s: Storming Inti

Race 10

Le Deluge is usually not the sort of horse I would center my day around. His last win came 16 starts and two years and two days ago. But I really think he’s the right horse in this spot.

Le Deluge ran pretty well last time out, finishing second at this nine-furlong distance over the track after being four wide on the first turn and making a three-wide move on the far turn. And he was clearly second-best behind a very logical winner who capitalized on controlling the pace from the outset. Le Deluge has had three breezes since that outing, a sign of good current health, and he drops a peg for a Chad Brown barn that is doing little wrong lately. Perhaps most importantly, Le Deluge is a closer in a race with a lot of suspect pace horses.

Truth be told, if Le Deluge doesn’t win this race, then I don’t have a clue as to who will. So, I’m going to back that up – literally – by using everyone else in the race as a “C” horse. If Le Deluge doesn’t win, then someone crazy might.

A’s: Le Deluge
B’s: None
C’s: Everyone else