Watchmaker: Pick four play for Saratoga for Sunday, Aug. 9
The late pick four Sunday at Saratoga is an appealing sequence. Here’s my play, via a DRF Ticketmaker link, followed by some race-by-race thoughts:
Race 8 – If Offering Plan runs back to his first two starts last year at 2, he will win this first-level allowance race for New York-breds. And given the fact he is trained by Chad Brown, who points to the Saratoga meet and laughs at the kind of nine-month layoffs this colt is coming off, there is no reason to think Offering Plan won’t run back to his best juvenile form. He won at first asking here last year, an effort flattered when the runner-up came back to win his next start with an 82 Beyer Figure, and he followed with a fine third against what proved to be a terrific field in the Grade 3 Pilgrim, finishing behind two legitimate stakes horses in Imperia and Vision Perfect. Even Offering Plan’s 13th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf wasn’t bad. He was checked into the first turn, and was bumped around between horses in the stretch. Offering Plan is my lone “A.”
My only backup here is Rectify, who has faced good company on dirt and now tries turf for the right connections – he’s trained by Bill Mott – being out of a mare who won on grass, and whose only sibling won on turf.
Race 9, Alydar Stakes – Even though trainer Todd Pletcher has fine numbers with horses coming off layoffs in route stakes races on dirt, I’m not using his Palace Malice here. And I’m a fan of this horse, too. I just don’t want Palace Malice when he hasn’t run a representative race in more than 14 months. I’m also against Golden Ticket (he’s reluctant to win even when he’s in his best form), Mylute (I’m not sure how good he really is), and Matrooh (he looks better on paper than he really is, and I’m not sure he wants this nine-furlong distance).
My two mains here are Mexikoma and Bay of Plenty. Mexikoma has hinted at being a good horse ever since his fast-closing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile two years ago, and I really liked his recent victory at Belmont in his return from a 13-month absence, even if it was on a sloppy track. Bay of Plenty lost whatever chance he had in the Met Mile most recently when taken up in the very stages. He could be dangerous here as the controlling speed from the inside.
My lone “C” here is Empire Dreams, who is moving up out of New York-bred competition. However, his last two stakes efforts, one a win, the other a game second against a slow pace, were his best performances yet, and he could be a stretch threat if this race falls apart late.
Race 10 – The last two legs of this sequence are tricky, and, I believe, require some spreading. You just have to hope you make the right choices when you designate mains and backups.
I have three of each in this race. My mains, in post position order, are Unbridled Sonya, who I think is poised to improve second time out this year; Tapitry, third behind two good ones in a similar spot most recently; and Frosty Friday, a logical contender off her non-stakes form at Santa Anita.
Race 11 – I don’t have a strong opinion in this one, other than the fact that I suspect the race will be won from off the pace, as evidenced by the fact I’ve got four “A’s” and four “C’s.”
My mains, in post position order, are Watchyouownbobber (coupled with Crown the Kitten), the pace horse I respect the most off the suitable drop in class; Talbot County, who came from well back to win his most recent outing in his best race yet; Lawn Ranger, the winner of the Grade 3 Bourbon last year who takes a very suspicious drop in for a tag off a long layoff, but who can close; and Valuetempo, who has shown a forward gear in the stretch on occasion, and who gets a positive rider switch.