Watchmaker: Pick four play for Breeders' Cup Saturday

What a terrific sequence Saturday’s late pick four on the Breeders’ Cup card at Santa Anita is. There is a lot to sink your teeth into and a very real possibility, if you are right, to make a lot with a relatively modest investment. Let’s get into it.

Race 9, Turf – Telescope, who hit the board in major Group 1 races in his last two starts and who has been pointed to this event for more than two months by the great Sir Michael Stoute, is my pick in this race. He and Main Sequence, who won three Grade 1 races in his three U.S. starts by photos and showed an admirable street-fighter mentality, are my two main horses. However, I will use three backups: Flintshire, Brown Panther, and Hardest Core.

Flintshire should be the favorite off his second in the l’Arc de Triomphe, but I’m relegating him to backup status because he failed at odds on in his prior two starts and hasn’t actually won a race in 16 months. Brown Panther, who is here only because he was scratched from the Canadian International two weeks ago after running off before the start, did run big winning the Irish St. Leger last time, but his overall form is not as good as Telescope’s – or Flintshire’s, for that matter. And I’m tossing in Hardest Core just in case he is up to proving his upset in the Arlington Million was not a fluke.

:: BREEDERS’ CUP 2014: Post positions, comments, and odds

Race 10, Sprint – I took a shot here picking Bourbon Courage, who is 30-1 on the morning line (I think he’ll be closer to 20-1). With the four speed horses breaking to his immediate inside likely to work their way over toward the rail and perhaps cause the inside- and middle-posted horses to be shuffled back, I can envision Bourbon Courage getting a clear outside sweep trip. Moreover, I liked Bourbon Courage’s comeback score, and he was competitive with good company earlier in his career. There are plenty worse bombers to take a chance with.

But I’ll also include Secret Circle and Rich Tapestry, who finished third and first, respectively, in the local prep for this race off layoffs, as “A” horses.

For backups, I’ll use Private Zone, who repeated in the Vosburgh in his second start off a layoff and with the return to dirt, and Palace and Mico Margarita. The latter two are the ones I sense could capitalize if this race falls completely apart late, which is not impossible.

Race 11, Mile – I’ve got three horses here on my main ticket and three as backups, and five of these six are Europeans. My main horses, who all either won or finished second in Group 1 races this year, are Karakontie (I really like the horse, but yes, I hate his 14 post), Toronado, and Anodin.

My two European backups are Mustajeeb and Veda. These two do not have Euro form as good as my main horses, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be big factors if they draw good trips. My final backup, and the only U.S. horse I’m using, is Tourist. I liked Tourist a lot when he was second in the Secretariat in his most recent appearance and thought he would have been a much tougher opponent for Adelaide had he not gone a second quarter-mile that was needlessly fast given he already was loose on the lead. And of course, Tourist’s second to Adelaide in the Secretariat took on a new light when Adelaide came back to win last week’s Cox Plate in Australia.

:: Santa Anita: Get PPs, watch Sunday's card live

Race 12, Classic – I believe Tonalist, who was very impressive winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup with a one-run closing approach that is obviously his most effective style, and the immensely talented Shared Belief, who overcame an eventful trip to win the local prep for this to remain undefeated, are the two best horses here. I picked Tonalist on top because I think it’s close between these two, and he will be the bigger price.

But not only do I believe Tonalist and Shared Belief are the two best horses in this Classic, I think they are best by a considerable margin. So they are my only “A” horses.

I have four horses tabbed as backups. Cigar Street is the one I like better than the others because he projects to sit a fantastic trip stalking Bayern and Moreno and will get first run. My other backups are Bayern, Zivo, and California Chrome. Truth be told, I really don’t care for these three in this spot. Bayern’s very talented, but his biggest scores were bias aided. Zivo had real trouble when second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but I wonder if he is a true two-turn horse. And California Chrome will get the outside trip he craves but will also have to deliver a career-best performance to win. But if my main horses win the first three legs of this sequence, it would be nice to have these horses for wide coverage.