Watchmaker: Pick four play for Aqueduct on Sunday, Nov. 9

The late pick four sequence at Aqueduct today is playable, with a couple of price horses I could use as “A’s.” Let’s go after it.

Race 6 – This is one of the races in the sequence where the favorites – Saint Joseph, Got Winged, and Persuasive Devil – look like the right horses. I actually slightly prefer Persuasive Devil, the longer price of the three on the morning line, because he was on the wrong surface (turf) most recently, ran into subsequent New York-bred stakes winners two and three starts back, and narrowly missed four back in a performance that would win this race.

But I will use Saint Joseph and Got Winged in equal strength with Persuasive Devil. Saint Joseph and Got Winged come out of the same race, in which they finished fourth and second, respectively. Saint Joseph had the tougher trip disputing a solid pace. Got Winged had no excuse that day to be edged by a long shot first-time starter, but he does get a significant rider switch today.

I’ll also throw in Swivel and Mr Harlan as backups. Swivel is a well-connected first-time starter. Mr Harlan was outrun in the Got Winged/Saint Joseph race, but that was only his first start, and he adds blinkers showing a recent bullet work.

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Race 7 – I’m disappointed by War Correspondent, who was the 2-1 morning line favorite, scratched here in favor of the Autumn Stakes at Woodbine. I planned to use him only defensively at best. War Correspondent romped in his first and only U. S. start as the even-money favorite but over a suspect group at Monmouth. And while he was third or better in his four prior starts in France, he was not ambitiously spotted there. Oh well.

Sky Blazer, who suitably cuts back in distance and drops after competing in five straight stakes, is logical, as is North Star Boy. North Star Boy finished narrowly in front of Sky Blazer when sixth behind Wise Dan in the Bernard Baruch last time and won at the overnight level two starts back. They are my two main horses along with Mutin, who gets Lasix in his U.S. debut and was 12-1 on the line but who now will wind up lower. Mutin’s overseas form is sketchy, but I have a healthy respect for the Shadwell/Kiaran McLaughlin/Irad Ortiz Jr. connections.

My lone “C” horse is Tetradrachm. Tetradrachm has had trouble closing the deal of late, but he makes his first start here off the pricey claim by David Jacobson, who is winning with everything he throws on the track these days.

Race 8 – Misszippityslewda and Frivolity might very likely dominate what scratched down to a five-horse race, and they are my two main horses. But you can’t completely trust either of them. Misszippityslewda makes her first start for the high-percentage Michelle Nevin barn, and she has a handful of races this year good enough to win this. Those are good things. On the other hand, she’s been away three months and is offered up for a tag today for the first time. That’s a bit troublesome.

As for Frivolity, she hasn’t been seen since early May and returns for a tag almost half of what she was claimed for in her last appearance. But she also has back races that are good enough, and she’s backed by the Jacobson juggernaut.

On the chance both Misszippityslewda and Frivolity are unable to perform to reasonable expectations, I’ll back up with Swakopmund, who was a narrowly beaten second at the distance three starts back in her last start on dirt.

Race 9 – This is a terrific betting race all on its own and a great way to wrap up a pick four. I have three “A” horses here and three “C’s,” but my main horses – Bigger Picture (6-1 on the morning line), Elroi (10-1), and Sweet Lew (10-1) – are the biggest prices of the bunch.

Bigger Picture showed marked improvement winning most recently in his first attempt on turf and first start off the Linda Rice claim and still has room to improve. Elroi makes his first start for a tag, but that is a positive drop in this instance for a turf specialist not quite good enough to win a second-level New York-bred allowance race and with the Northeast turf season nearing its end.

I’m very intrigued by Sweet Lew. He might seem cheap having won for only $6,500 two back at 14-1, but his third of 14 at Laurel last time out was sneaky good. Sweet Lou faced a pretty solid starter-allowance field that day, and after breaking from a tough outside post, he contested a pace that was much faster than the other turf routes on that card.

My backups are Campogiovanni, a more competitive third when dropped in for a tag last time out; Loveisheartandsoul, whose form isn’t far at all off others in here and who is interesting off the claim; and Honor the Kitten, somewhat suspect off the stretch out but certainly fast enough to contend.

Here’s the play: