Watchmaker: Pick five play for Belmont on Sunday, Oct. 26

While every betting syndicate and his brother will be chasing the $50,000 pick six carryover with mandatory payout on Sunday’s closing-day card at Belmont, I take the path of lesser resistance and go after the pick five, starting in the first race.

Race 1 – I’ll be leaning heavily here on SUMMATION TIME, who ran reasonably well against better in his first two starts. Summation Time drops and cuts back in distance for a Christophe Clement barn that had three winners at Belmont yesterday and will be an outside closer here, a style I prefer on these yielding turf courses.

I’ll back up with ROAD TO ROCKPORT, who debuts on turf and adds blinkers; firster ARTIE CRASHER, who lured Joel Rosario; SMOKE POLICE, another first-time turfer; and DR. ABRAMSON, who makes his first start for a tag.

Race 2 – I’ve been waiting for RED GUARD to run back after his debut, in which he finished powerfully and galloped out strongly. Here he is. The only other one I’ll use as a main is TWEET KITTEN, who looks the most live of the two Chad Brown first-time starters.

My backups here are ZENNOR, who burned a boatload of money in his first two starts but who now moves to turf and adds Lasix; TAKEOVER TARGET, the other Brown firster; ANDALUSITE, beaten only a length in his first two starts; and the firster IRISH CAUSEWAY, whom the connections paid up for at auction and who lured Rosario.

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Race 3 – SAVVY SASSY will be a heavy favorite off a romp at first asking. She’ll be tough to beat, but I would never stand alone with her because the field she beat was weak, including professional maiden Brilliant Jewel. I’ll also use STORM SWEPT, who is poised for a big move forward second start off the long layoff and with blinkers on, and will back up with DEAR MAMA, the best speed horse.

Race 4 – The 81 Beyer Speed Figure TRUE ROMANCE earned when narrowly beaten in her recent debut is significantly better than anyone else in this field ever has run. If True Romance merely duplicates her debut (and she has a license to improve), she’ll win. Easily. At a very short price.

However, I’ll also use MALLORY STREET, who returns from a 14-month absence for a sharp layoff barn and who kept good company last year. And I will use Mallory Street in equal strength with True Romance in the hopes of knocking off a heavy favorite who will likely be a single in the vast majority of plays.

Race 5 – With Offering Plan scratching out of this, the Awad Stakes, in favor of Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, VISION PERFECT, a fine second in the Pilgrim Stakes, and A LOT, a nice winner last time in his turf debut, look like the right horses. But I’ll also use ZANDAR, who won the race Red Guard in the second race comes out of, and will back up with READY STRIKE and GUSTNADO, who come off lower-rated maiden wins.