Watchmaker: Older dirt males division in flux

The death of Shared Belief two weeks ago and the retirement of Tonalist last week were unexpected. And since Shared Belief was a five-time Grade 1 stakes-winning champion who lost but twice in his career and Tonalist was a winner of highly prestigious Grade 1 events at such varied distances as one mile, 1 1/4 miles, and 1 1/2 miles, it goes without saying that they will be sorely missed in next year’s older dirt male division.

The 2016 older dirt male division was already in a vulnerable position due to some other key retirements. You can’t see horses like Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, likely 2015 older dirt male champion Honor Code, and multiple Grade 1 stakes winner Liam’s Map depart for the breeding shed without feeling a profoundly negative impact on the track.

This isn’t to say that as we speak at this moment, there isn’t any talent projected for the 2016 older dirt male division. Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner and 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome is training right along, and it will be terrific to see him put together a steady campaign on these shores next year. Dortmund, winner of 8 of 10 career starts and sensational since returning to action, is poised to have a huge season next year at 4. And there are others to look forward to such as Grade 1 winner Frosted, who might thrive once he gets out from under American Pharoah’s shadow, and Effinex, who followed his second-place finish to American Pharoah in the Breeders’ Cup Classic with a Grade 1 stakes victory.

The problem is, as it appears at this writing, there just isn’t the depth of quality one would hope to see in a division like this one. This might mean that many of 2016’s prestigious races for older dirt males might come up painfully hungry. But it also might mean there is a golden opportunity for other talent to step forward.

In that vein, there are three horses about to turn 4 who are not foremost in the general consciousness right now but who might emerge in a big way next year. They are:

FIRING LINE – It’s easy to forget about him since he hasn’t raced since the Preakness, but let’s not forget he gave American Pharoah everything he could handle when a narrowly beaten second in the Kentucky Derby after earlier having a couple epic battles in stakes with Dortmund. Nine furlongs might be Firing Line’s wheelhouse, but his big Derby effort proved he can be effective going longer in the right circumstances.

SPEIGHTSTER – He was stopped by an ankle chip last summer, but before that misfortune, he impressed winning his first three starts, including a strong victory over Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red in the Dwyer Stakes. Before Speightster was injured, his connections were targeting the seven-furlong King’s Bishop instead of the nine-furlong Jim Dandy, which suggests he is thought of as a miler. That’s okay. Even if I believe the Breeders’ Cup Mile is a race that should be retired because it does more harm than good to the Breeders’ Cup overall, I still find milers to be immensely entertaining.

UPSTART – The wheels kind of came off for this one in a miserable Kentucky Derby effort, overshadowing what he did earlier, including a big win in the Holy Bull and an excellent second in the Florida Derby. But I thought Upstart showed he is still capable of doing some serious work when third behind American Pharoah and Keen Ice in the Haskell. Technically speaking, Upstart went into the Haskell off a three-month layoff. In practical terms, he hadn’t run a representative race in more than four months. Whatever, it caught my eye that he ran as well as he did that day after such inactivity. He’s also bred to get better as he gets older.

** It has been noted in this space before how often some of this year’s 2-year-old fillies have run faster than their male counterparts. These juvenile fillies are very good. But fast is not a term you would use to describe the group that contested Saturday’s Grade 1 Starlet Stakes.

Look, Street Fancy got up in time and improved her value exponentially by securing a Grade 1 victory that no one will ever be able to take away from her. But Street Fancy must be living right, too. It looked like she finished big when third in last month’s Desi Arnaz, but it was an optical illusion as the Arnaz was a race that absolutely disintegrated late. The last eighth of that seven-furlong race was run in 13.42 seconds. The last three-eighths were run in 38.87. It’s no wonder why Street Fancy looked like she was eating ground up late.

The Starlet turned out to be a similar stagger fest. The Starlet field looked like it had been hit by a slow-motion ray gun down the stretch with a final five-sixteenths of a mile in 33.16. Give Street Fancy credit. She was the only one able to capitalize. But her winning Beyer Speed Figure of only 74 says what you need to know.