Watchmaker: Not thrilled with emphasis on graded sprint stakes

There is always at least a little debate when the American Graded Stakes Committee makes changes in the rankings of graded and listed stakes races in the U.S. And I admit I find this to be an interesting topic because I find the grading of stakes races to be a worthwhile, if inherently imperfect, pursuit.

But the marquee revisions for 2019 announced on Friday by the AGSC seem more controversial than usual. Even provocative. Let’s take a look.

Three races were upgraded to the Grade 1 level for 2019 – the Jaipur and Woody Stephens at Belmont Park, two races that have recently resided on the Belmont Stakes undercard, and the Churchill Downs Stakes, which has been on the Kentucky Derby undercard.

By contrast, six races were downgraded from Grade 1 to Grade 2 next year – the Beldame at Belmont, the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs, the Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity, and the Santa Margarita, Triple Bend, and Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita.

Now, a couple of those races downgraded from Grade 1 to 2 probably deserved it. As long as New York remains out of the Breeders’ Cup site rotation, many of the big fall stakes at Belmont that were once champion-makers, such as the Beldame, will continue to suffer. I mean, why prep for a two-turn Breeders’ Cup Distaff in the one-turn Beldame?

However, the downgrading of some of those other Grade 1 races was downright shocking. Let’s take a look at the last five winners of the Zenyatta, CashCall Futurity, and Foster:

ZENYATTA
2018 – Vale Dori
2017 – Paradise Woods
2016 – Stellar Wind
2015 – Beholder
2014 – Beholder (she also won the 2013 Zenyatta)

CASHCALL FUTURITY
2017 – McKinzie
2016 – Mastery
2015 – Mor Spirit
2014 – Dortmund
2013 – Shared Belief

FOSTER
2018 – Pavel
2017 – Gun Runner
2016 – Bradester
2015 – Noble Bird
2014 – Moonshine Mullin

Now, let’s take a look at the last five winners of the races that were upgraded to Grade 1 for 2019, the Jaipur, Stephens, and Churchill Downs:

JAIPUR
2018 – Disco Partner
2017 – Disco Partner
2016 – Pure Sensation
2015 – Channel Marker
2014 – Undrafted

STEPHENS
2018 – Still Having Fun
2017 – American Anthem
2016 – Tom’s Ready
2015 – March
2014 – Bayern

CHURCHILL DOWNS
2018 – Limousine Liberal
2017 – Limousine Liberal
2016 – Catalina Red
2015 – Private Zone
2014 – Central Banker

The contrast here could not be more stark. Every one of the most recent winners of the Zenyatta were legitimate Grade 1 horses, and two of the four (Beholder and Stellar Wind) were champions. Every one of the last five winners of the CashCall were legitimate Grade 1 horses and one (Shared Belief) was a champion. The Foster’s list of recent winners isn’t as strong overall, but when Gun Runner wins the second most-recent running of the race in the midst of a Horse of the Year campaign, you would think that would earn you some dispensation.

On the other hand, while the Jaipur has been won recently by some admirable hard hitters, not one would be confused with a true Grade 1 performer. The only legitimate Grade 1 horse on the list of recent Stephens winners was Bayern, and his win was the longest ago. And the only real Grade 1 horse among recent Churchill Downs Stakes winners was Private Zone, and his win was the second longest ago.

Whether a coincidence or not, all three of the stakes upgraded to Grade 1 for 2019 are sprints, and two are niche sprints – the Jaipur is on turf and the Stephens is restricted to 3-year-olds. Meanwhile, the Triple Bend was the only sprint downgraded from Grade 1.

Notably, all five stakes that were upgraded to Grade 2 for 2019 – all five – are sprints – the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, the Twin Spires Turf Sprint at Churchill, and the Eddie D., which are all run on turf, and the Gallant Bob and Amsterdam, which are both restricted to 3-year-olds. Yet just two of the six stakes that were downgraded from Grade 2 to Grade 3 next year were sprints – the Chilukki and Barbara Fritchie.

This means that sprint stakes of one form or another had a net Grade 1 or Grade 2 upgrade gain of five.

That’s astonishing for a sport that has always placed a premium on horses who can cover a distance of ground. And it’s a sharp change of direction I’m not fond of.

Saturday notes:

** The Cigar Mile that Patternrecognition won at Aqueduct wasn’t the strongest ever run, but he was still very good notching his third straight win. And it didn’t hurt Patternrecognition that Mendelssohn (fourth) came up flat after a tough series of gut-wrenching outings, or that Copper Town suffered a bad start.

** It was a tale of two Aqueduct main tracks Saturday. The Cigar Mile’s final time of 1:34.98, as compared to Marley’s Freedom’s time of 1:38.35 winning the Go For Wand three races earlier, is proof of how dramatically the track sped up late in the card. So, too, is Maximus Mischief’s final time for the nine-furlong Remsen of 1:51.34 as compared to Positive Spirit’s final time in the Demoiselle four races earlier of 1:56.01.

As if playing horses isn’t difficult enough, man-made changes to track conditions just add another unnecessary layer of difficulty. And I say man-made in this case because weather certainly was not a factor.

** There was a distinct outside bias on Aqueduct’s main track on Friday, and that bias carried over to at least the early part of Saturday’s card. Some feel that the outside bias went away as the track sped up, but I’m not so sure. Maybe the bias was a bit less overt, but I believe the outside helped carry Come Dancing in her near miss to Marley’s Freedom, helped the longshot Tax be a factor through the stretch run of the Remsen, and assisted big longshot True Timber in his narrowly beaten second in the Cigar Mile.

** Maximus Mischief, who stretched his unbeaten streak to three in the Remsen, is, I think, even better than his 2 1/4-length score Saturday would suggest. Maximus Mischief gravitated toward the dead rail soon after going clear into the far turn as horses who go clear are often wont to do, and I suspect that had a muting effect on his performance.