Watchmaker: Most Eclipse Awards divisions in flux at half-way point

American Pharoah clinched Horse of the Year honors the moment he crossed the finish line first in the Belmont Stakes. That we all know. But when was the last time the sport’s biggest year-end honor was settled so early, with half the season still remaining?

You have to go back to the incredible racing decade of the 1970s for the answer, though not necessarily 1977, the year Seattle Slew swept the Triple Crown, or 1978, when Affirmed snared the Holy Grail.

Although every Triple Crown winner since 1936, the year Thoroughbred racing’s year-end awards were formalized, went on to be voted Horse of the Year, there was at least a tiny degree of uncertainty in 1977 and 1978. Forego still was around in 1977 and winning major events and was coming off three straight Horse of the Year titles. And Seattle Slew was around in 1978, performing in a manner that confirmed his greatness beyond any doubt. They at least made sure the races for Horse of the Year in 1977 and 1978 weren’t walkovers.

No, you have to go back to 1973 and Secretariat for a time when Horse of the Year was wrapped up this early. And perhaps not coincidentally, Secretariat ended a long Triple Crown drought, as did American Pharoah.

But even if there is no mystery left in the 2015 Horse of the Year and champion 3-year-old male Eclipse Awards, what about the rest of the divisions? Here’s a brief look at the current state of them:

Older Dirt Male – With Shared Belief out of the picture for the rest of the year, this division is crying for leadership, but the wait continues for someone to step up. We still don’t know if Honor Code can be effective going two turns as he was in the Met Mile or which Tonalist we’ll get. With this void at the top, I’m amazed California Chrome still is thinking turf and the Arlington Million. But I suppose there will be time in the fall for the defending Horse of the Year to seize control here, if able.

Older Dirt Female – If she stays healthy, Beholder is the boss here and by a long way. But Beholder can’t be everywhere, so opportunities are on the table for Warren’s Veneda, Wedding Toast, and Stopchargingmaria. As for Untapable, she’s not showing any signs that she will or can return to her best form of 2014.

Three-year-old Female – I’m well aware that Lovely Maria won the Ashland before she won the Kentucky Oaks, that I’m a Chatterbox swept the filly stakes at Fair Grounds, and that Stellar Wind’s victory Saturday in the Summertime Oaks was her third stakes win this year at Santa Anita. But I still have the very strong sense that it could be a game of musical chairs this year at the top for dirt fillies. I also have the very strong sense that Lady Eli is the best of this group. But she’s a turf specialist, and she’ll have to do something special to distinguish herself in a division that in the context of championships, has been the property of dirt performers.

Turf Males – Here’s hoping Main Sequence rebounds from his unsuccessful venture to Dubai and regains the command of this division that he had last year. If he doesn’t, then we might have to resign ourselves to watching a bunch of Grade 3 horses win our best grass races until the Europeans invade en masse. As for Wise Dan, I’d truly love to see him come back strong. But we’re getting close to the point where it might be unreasonable to think he can be a significant contributor this year.

Turf Females – Picture the male turf division, only without any hope of help from the likes of Main Sequence and Wise Dan, and that’s what you have here. This division is a mess. If I were Aidan O’Brien, I’d be sending over every marginal Group 3 mare I have right now. I’d be going home with way more of this division’s big prizes than not.

Sprinters – I’m not going to get too down on Work All Week for losing his seasonal bow because he is the defending male sprint champ, so he’s earned the benefit of the doubt. But I would really hope to see improvement next month in the Smile Sprint. Secret Circle did us proud with his win in Dubai, but we all know you can’t depend on him performing with any regularity. And who knows how much of a sprinter Honor Code will be even if he is better going one turn? But the emergence of Rock Fall here is a pleasant development.

As for the female sprinters, Dame Dorothy has come on strong with consecutive graded stakes wins, but she’s been fortunate. She caught Judy the Beauty in the Humana Distaff on a Churchill main track that Judy the Beauty just does not like, and she got a huge base on balls when she won Saturday’s Bed o’ Roses at Belmont when the main speed and her principal opponent got left in the gate. Judy the Beauty, the defending champ, still is the leader here.