Watchmaker: Keep an eye on this trio in 2016
In terms of stakes action, Saturday could have been a sleepy one, caught in a void between the Breeders’ Cup and the big doings we’ve come to expect on Thanksgiving weekend. Instead, it was an interesting day, largely due to victories from three horses who might make some significant noise in 2016. They are:
Mr Maybe – He had obvious attributes in Aqueduct’s Red Smith Handicap. Blowout scores in his last two starts, including one most recently for new trainer Chad Brown, suggested the switch suddenly flipped to “on” for Mr Maybe, and there was literally no telling now how good he might really be.
Being a new faced backed by the Brown juggernaut, it seemed pretty clear that Mr Maybe could be the wise guy horse in the Red Smith, meaning he was likely to be overbet relative to the credentials others in the race brought to the table. That said, it was positively astounding how heavily Mr Maybe was backed. Against Grade 1, Grade 2, and multiple Grade 3 stakes winner Mr Speaker; multiple Grade 2 winner and multiple Grade 1 stakes placed Kaigun; Grade 2 and Grade 3 stakes winner War Dancer; multiple Grade 3 stakes winner Holiday Star; and multiple graded stake- placed Charming Kitten, Mr Maybe, who had never before started in a stakes race of any sort, was sent off the 2-1 favorite.
As we horseplayers like to say, Mr Maybe was bet like the Red Smith was run last week.
Well, Mr Maybe made that 2-1 look like the overlay of the month. Despite being shuffled back to last through a glacier-like pace of 26.07 seconds, 51.31, and 1:16.94, Mr Maybe ran by the Red Smith field from the three-eighths pole to the eighth pole like they were statues, and continued on to record a win margin of 4 1/4 lengths. Now, four lengths is an enormous margin in turf races, where the nature of that game tends to strongly compress margins in general. But in this case, Mr Maybe’s margin really doesn’t do justice to how dominating he was. He was that impressive.
After the Red Smith, Brown told the New York Racing Association press staff that he has big plans for Mr Maybe next year and believes this gelding can get to the Grade 1 level. Considering how Mr Maybe ran Saturday, there is little doubt he will.
Gentlemen’s Bet – No one likes to see stakes races decided in the stewards’s stand, but it happens. Last summer, we saw I’m a Chatterbox disqualified from first and placed second behind Curalina in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks – rightfully, it should be noted – a decision that has had all sorts of impact, right down to the Eclipse Award for champion 3-year-old filly. Don’t you agree that I’m a Chatterbox’s case for her divisional title would be exponentially more compelling if she also had a win in the Grade 1 CCA Oaks on her resume?
Anyway, the disqualification of Trouble Kid from first to second behind Gentlemen’s Bet in the De Francis Dash at Laurel didn’t have the same repercussions as the CCA Oaks disqualification, but it was no less correct. As we saw countless times while the Laurel stewards adjudicated the matter, Trouble Kid came over on Gentlemen’s Bet in the run toward the far turn, forcing Gentlemen’s Bet to be taken up. This could have been an insurmountable obstacle for a horse like Gentlemen’s Bet, who does his best work when he’s close to the pace. So it is to his credit, and evidence that he was demonstrably best, that Gentlemen’s Bet got his legs back under him, and fought Trouble Kid down to three-quarters of a length at the wire.
Gentlemen’s Bet is a 6-year-old who was making only his 16th career start on Saturday, and his people are going on with him next year. If he can stay on the right side of health, then Gentlemen’s Bet could be a significant player in the 2016 male sprint division. After all, he is a horse who when healthy in 2013 was good enough to finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
Hot City Girl – With the exception of the years Groupie Doll was racing, the female sprint division is traditionally one that can turn on a dime. But given the way Hot City Girl won the Safely Kept Stakes on the De Francis Dash undercard, there is no reason to think she couldn’t be a factor in this division as a 4-year-old next year.
Yes, I know Hot City Girl was the 1-2 favorite in the Safely Kept, and was also the controlling speed, so she was supposed to win. I also know Grade 1 stakes winner Cavorting, who was badly compromised by post 14 when fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, will be 4 next year, too.
However, Hot City Girl came back from a summer freshening as a different, and vastly improved horse. The Safely Kept made it three runaway victories from as many starts since her return. In fact, Hot City Girl was able to romp by more than eight lengths Saturday despite visibly goofing off through the stretch run. And as distracted as she was, Hot City Girl ran her seven furlongs in 1:22.70, significantly faster than the 1:23.58 older males covered the same distance after a nearly identical pace in the City of Laurel Stakes three races earlier.