Watchmaker: Juvenile stakes intrigue on blockbuster Thanksgiving weekend

I’m a fool for Thanksgiving racing. I have been since I was young, when my dad and I would drive down for the morning Thanksgiving Day card at Lincoln Downs or Narragansett and still be back in time to catch the holiday dinner my poor mom worked so hard on.

Nowadays, the main and obvious appeal to Thanksgiving racing is it is the last big blowout of truly major coast-to-coast stakes action until a month or so into next year. And this week’s stakes action is coming up huge.

No race this weekend is coming up bigger than Friday’s Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs. Among those eyeing the Clark are Keen Ice, who was the only one to beat American Pharoah this year, doing so when he upset the Travers; Race Day, who returned to form impressively winning the Fayette on the Breeders’ Cup Friday undercard; Effinex, runner-up to American Pharoah in the BC Classic; and Mr. Z (wait, what?). But personally, I can’t wait to see Dortmund in the Clark. Dortmund is the one I took against American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby, and even though things went very sideways for Dortmund from the Derby until he won his comeback last month, I remain a fan. I think he can be a major older male next year, along with Shared Belief and California Chrome, and isn’t that an exciting prospect?

But even in the face of the Clark, Aqueduct’s Cigar Mile and Go for Wand, and Del Mar’s Seabiscuit and Hollywood Derby, I must confess what attracts me most this weekend are the big 2-year-old stakes.

Yes, I know that folks, myself sometimes included, tend to overestimate the potential impact of the Remsen at Aqueduct and the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill, specifically in a Kentucky Derby context. After all, it is reasonable to think that a late-season 2-year-old stakes run at 1 1/8 miles such as the Remsen would be a reliable barometer of important 3-year-old form, as would a two-turn event run at the same track as the Derby. It turns out it doesn’t often work that way, but that doesn’t mean it never does or that these races aren’t won by horses who go on to accomplish very important things. Super Saver won the Kentucky Jockey Club six years ago, and he won the Derby the following year. Honor Code won the Remsen just two years ago, and he is close to being a slam dunk for this year’s champion older dirt male.

Anyway, Saturday’s Remsen is coming up an exciting race, as it so often does. And the Remsen, along with the Kentucky Jockey Club, might take on added significance this year in light of an underwhelming BC Juvenile and the desperate win at odds on by Exaggerator in Saturday’s Delta Downs Jackpot off a close fourth-place finish in that BC Juvenile.

Mohaymen, Flexibility, and Sail Ahoy, the first three finishers in the Nashua, are all expected back for the Remsen, and all are easily likeable as 3-year-old prospects with real potential. It will be interesting to see how Gift Box fits in with this trio. Gift Box got a big Beyer Speed Figure of 93 going long at Belmont in his maiden win in his second start, but that was in the slop. However, the horse Gift Box edged that day, Matt King Coal (who currently is listed as a possible for both the Remsen and Kentucky Jockey Club), came back to romp in his next start, earning a 96 Beyer.

There is a lot of depth in the Kentucky Jockey Club in the form of Annual Report, who made it 2 for 2 with a decisive score in the Futurity; Gun Runner, who also is 2 for 2; Force It, who has galloped in two straight; and Mo Tom and Tom’s Ready, the one-two finishers in the Street Sense. There also is one giant question mark – Airoforce. Airoforce will be making his first career start on dirt after compiling terrific form on turf. He was just nailed by Hit It a Bomb in the BC Juvenile Turf and was a most-impressive, wide-trip winner of the Bourbon before that.

Aqueduct’s filly counterpart to the Remsen is the Demoiselle, and the Golden Rod is Churchill’s filly counterpart to the Kentucky Jockey Club. At this writing, the Demoiselle threatens to be unusually soft, but that is most certainly not the case for the Golden Rod.

Unlike the BC Juvenile, Songbird could not have been more impressive winning the BC Juvenile Fillies, and we might get a sharper line on Songbird’s Breeders’ Cup form in the Golden Rod. Dothraki Queen, who finished third in the BC Juvenile Fillies, albeit a soundly beaten third, is scheduled to come back in the Golden Rod, and she will take on two wildly promising prospects in Stageplay and Carina Mia.

Stageplay was a most-impressive winner of her quickly run debut, which is why she was 3-5 last time in the Rags to Riches, which she won professionally. Carina Mia finished second to Stageplay when she also made her debut, a debut that considering she’s trained by Bill Mott, she might not have been fully cranked for. But Carina Mia made jaws drop all over Keeneland when she came back the day before the Breeders’ Cup and buried maidens by almost 10 lengths in time good enough for a heady 97 Beyer.