Watchmaker: Justify, Good Magic are hard to argue with

If your handicapping game involves identifying short-priced horses with vulnerabilities and betting against them, then Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico could be dangerously close to the kind of race you would watch more than bet.

Justify was tremendous winning the Kentucky Derby. I mean, he was days the best. Justify disputed a very fast early pace, a pace that would have caused many good 3-year-olds to crumble going the Derby distance, and yet he still bounded away from his field through the stretch.

As was the case in his first three starts, including a powerful score in the Santa Anita Derby that made him the clear-cut Kentucky Derby favorite, Justify never allowed anyone to think he was in danger of losing for even a fleeting instant.

Oh yeah, Justify also obliterated that little 136-year Kentucky Derby streak against horses who did not race at 2. Not bad at all for a colt who only began his career on Feb. 18.

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You don’t have to be Andy Beyer Jr. to know that Justify is an extremely likely winner of this Preakness at a very short price. You also don’t have to be a savant to know that Good Magic, last year’s champion 2-year-old male, has a huge edge on the rest of this Preakness field as the short-priced second choice.

Good Magic was primed to run a big race in the Derby, and he did. Good Magic was close to the rapid Derby pace from the outset – not on it, like Justify, but close to it – and he fought on gamely through the stretch, if in vain.

Although Good Magic saved the place in the Derby by only a head from Audible, pace considerations insist he ran considerably better.

The Derby’s fast and disputed pace was tailor-made for closers like Audible. In comparison to those who were involved in the pace and did all the dirty work, the Derby setup made some closers appear better than they really were.

The margin between Good Magic and Audible might have been a mere head, but after having raced close to Justify’s wicked pace from the outset, Good Magic, for my money, did far more meaningful running.

I made Justify the 2-5 favorite in Daily Racing Form’s morning line for the Preakness. That’s how likely a winner I believe the general betting public will see him. I think 3-5 is about as high as he can go. Good Magic is second choice in my line at 5-2. I don’t see him going off any higher, and he might actually go a bit lower if the betting public really turns their back on the remainder of this Preakness field, which is possible. If these odds are in the ballpark then simple math says the odds on the third choice in Preakness betting (Quip, I think) will be all the way out in the mid-teens.

The “beat-the-favorite” crowd, of which I am usually a member, but not this time, will likely base their position on Justify’s short, two-week turnaround. While I agree a two-week turnaround is tough these days for the average horse coming off a huge effort, I don’t believe “Justify” and “average” belong in the same sentence, and think the short turnaround issue in his case is a non-starter.

The thing is, Good Magic and the others coming out of the Derby have the same quick turnaround to deal with while also having to face the formidable task of closing a substantial talent gap of varying proportions. And while the new shooters in this Preakness have no concerns about a quick turnaround, they have an even wider talent gap to worry about. As a rule, and with very few exceptions, the best 3-year-olds at this time of year by far are the ones who run in the Kentucky Derby.

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So, what do you do with a race like the Preakness where the prohibitive favorite and the strong second choice look so tough to beat? Well, you could get creative in multi-race exotics, take Justify as the bingo free space in this leg of whatever pick X you’re participating in, and play for surprises in the other legs of your sequence.

Or, you could try and turn a tiny exacta into perhaps a palatable trifecta, and get a horse back for third who others might be selling short. For me (and I almost can’t believe I’m saying this), that horse is Bravazo.

Frankly, Bravazo was one of my first eliminations in the Derby. His final prep in the Louisiana Derby was dreadful – a distant eighth-place finish after lugging out much of the way, earning a maiden claiming-like Beyer Figure of 64. And he was bringing a six-week layoff into the Derby, to boot.

But Bravazo ran much better in Kentucky than anyone other than those closest to him could have expected. He was bumped soundly behind a few strides after the start, found himself much farther off the pace than he is accustomed to, and raced wide throughout. And yet he actually made a bit of a run into fourth in upper stretch.

Bravazo did flag a little late and wound up sixth. In his defense, though, he could have been short since he couldn’t have gotten very much out of his Louisiana Derby debacle, and it was mid-February since he last ran a representative race. Bravazo should be more fit for this go-around.

Maybe fit enough to get third, behind Justify and Good Magic.

POST	HORSE/SIRE		TRACK ODDS	WATCHMAKER ODDS	BEST BEYER	DERBY FINISH, BEYER	JAY PRIVMAN AND MIKE WATCHMAKER COMMENTS
		- designates Keeneland Sale grad
1	Quip		12-1	12-1	94	**	JP: Has overlapping ownership with Justify. Two good efforts so far this year, should get a decent trip.
	by Distorted Humor						MW: It's a good bet that he'll do what Justify doesn't do. He'll sit if Justify goes, he'll go if Justify rates.
	Owner: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club & SF Racing; Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset; Jockey: Florent Geroux
2	Lone Sailor		15-1	30-1	95	8th, 89	JP: Didn't break well in Derby, but saved ground whole way. Some traffic 3/8s, but good trip overall.
	by Majestic Warrior						MW: Derby trouble line in his pps says "stymied." Lacked room for a bit on far turn, was empty late.
	Owner: G M B Racing; Trainer: Tom Amoss; Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
3	Sporting Chance		30-1	30-1	91	**	JP: Reportedly refused to work Sunday. Winless in four starts at 3, erratic behavior always a concern.
	by Tiznow						MW: His form isn't going anywhere, either. Seems like he wants some R and R instead of more racing.
	Owner: Robert Baker and William Mack; Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas; Jockey: Luis Contreras
4	Diamond King		30-1	30-1	84	**	JP: Earned berth via "Win and You're In" Tesio. Likely to end up chasing Justify early, which is not ideal.
	by Quality Road						MW: An ungraded race should never be a "WAYI" for a classic. Lucky he's not blocking a better horse.
	Owner: Cash Is King, D J Stable, & L C Racing; Trainer: John Servis; Jockey: Javier Castellano
5	Good Magic		3-1	5-2	100	2nd, 99	JP: Was sitting on a big race in Derby, fired, was second best. Running here as Belmont never an option.
	by Curlin						MW: Ran well in Derby as he was close to Justify's pace, but it's difficult seeing him turning the tables.
	Owner: e Five Thoroughbreds & Stonestreet Stables; Trainer: Chad Brown; Jockey: Jose Ortiz
6	Tenfold		20-1	20-1	92	**	JP: Looks like ambitious spot for a lightly raced colt who had every chance in Ark. Derby but was outrun.
	by Curlin						MW: Simply not fast enough from the standpoint of speed figures to contend, but has room to improve.
	Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds; Trainer: Steve Asmussen; Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
7	Justify		1-2	2-5	107	1st, 103	JP: Set wicked Derby pace, kept going. Has come a long way in brief time. Makes fifth start in 13 weeks.
	by Scat Daddy						MW: His Derby effort was tremendous. If he's as special as he seems, his schdedule won't mean a thing.
	Owner: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, Starlight Racing, & Head of Plains Partners; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Mike Smith
8	Bravazo		20-1	30-1	93	6th, 91	JP: Ran far better than expected in Derby. Bumped at start, wide throughout, kept to task until late.
	by Awesome Again						MW: He still was beaten eight lengths, but agree, his Derby effort was okay, can get a small piece here.
	Owner: Calumet Farm; Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas; Jockey: Luis Saez