Watchmaker: How I'll play Gulfstream for Saturday, March 18

There is a lot of action for the multi-race exotics player on Saturday’s 13-race card at Gulfstream, with the Rainbow 6, two pick 5s, three pick 4s, and pick 3s virtually everywhere. But it is the middle pick 4, encompassing races 6 through 9, where I hope to make something interesting happen. Let’s have a look:

My strongest opinion in this pick 4 comes in the 8th race, the third leg of the sequence, where I will single CONQUEST BANDIT. Conquest Bandit was well-bet and well-meant last time out in his return to turf, and first start for a tag. He ran off early to set a fast pace, yet held determinedly through the stretch despite racing erratically and drifting out.

Purely on the face of it, that effort from Conquest Bandit is good enough to win this starter allowance/optional claimer, and makes him the controlling speed. But there are reasons to think Conquest Bandit can do even better.

For one, he makes his first start off the claim for trainer Mike Maker. According to Formulator, Maker has won at a 25 percent clip with a $2.66 ROI over the last five years with horses first off the claim on turf. Moreover, Conquest Bandit couldn’t have gotten much out of dismal outings two and three starts back on dirt, which he clearly dislikes, so his win most recently was really his first representative outing in four months.

I’ll be spreading in the other three races in this sequence, using a mix of logical horses and some intriguing longshots, in the hopes, obviously, of getting a couple of the latter home.

In race 6 I’ll be using DELIGHTFUL LANA, DISCREET POWER, MY LIFE, and O. K. KAY. My Life makes her first start for a tag for Todd Pletcher and gets a huge rider switch to Luis Saez. Delightful Lana finished third in an arguably tougher race last time, a race in which O. K. Kay was making her career debut and finished an okay fifth. Discreet Power, 20-1 on the morning line (I doubt she’ll be that high), is interesting. She makes her first start for a tag, is first time Lasix, and is first time on turf being out of a dam who won on turf and has thrown two grass winners.

I’m going five deep in race 7: CROCODILE CHARLIE, ILLMATIC, WARRENTED, JACK OF DIAMONDS, and GOLDEN KANTHAROS. Illmatic is logical off a third against much better last time and the big class drop. Crocodile Charlie steps up off a fast-closing fourth in his debut, while Golden Kantharos flashed speed against better in his debut and now drops in for a tag. Warranted and Jack of Diamonds are firsters trained by Kathleen O’Connell who have been working well enough.

My hope is to be alive to five in the last leg, race 9. I’ll be using KITTEN FOR GRANNY, RORY, and BOURBON COMMANDER, who are all logical after hitting the board in similar maiden claimers in their last starts. But I’ll be rooting most for CASBY'S KID and CAPE FORCE, who will be better prices. Casby’s Kid will appreciate stretching back out to two turns, conditions under which he turned in efforts two and three starts back that make him a major player here. The lightly raced Cape Force has that second in his debut last winter that would win this, and now goes for a new barn, is a new gelding, and gets blinkers on.
Here’s the basic play:
1,2,6,11 with 5,6,7,8,9 with 7 with 2,5,9,10,12