Watchmaker: How I'll play Gulfstream for Saturday, Dec. 10

There are 11 races Saturday at Gulfstream, but for so many races, there really isn’t a lot of form to dig into. That is because Saturday is Juvenile Showcase Day at Gulfstream, with all 11 races for 2-year-olds.

Despite the relative lack of form, I found the back half of this card interesting, to the point where I used race 7, the PULPIT STAKES, and race 10, the WAIT A WHILE STAKES, as the first two races in my Weekend Warrior column this week, which can be found here:
http://www.drf.com/news/preview/weekend-warrior-saturday-dec-10-picks-pulpit-wait-while-starlet

I like CONCOMITANT in the Pulpit. Concomitant is one of six last-out maiden winners in the field, and I just think he comes out of stronger races, races that were run at Belmont Park.

Lemonist is one of four in the Pulpit who got their first wins last time going two turns on turf at Gulfstream Park West, and is the favorite on the morning line set by Gulfstream’s Jay Stone (I’m not counting the main track-only entrant). I’m not in love with Lemonist. I thought he beat up on a bad field. If I were to use any other last-out GPW maiden winner, it would be MASTER PLAN, who, like Lemonist, is trained by Todd Pletcher. Master Plan also victimized a soft field most recently, but I thought he faced a good field when a wide-trip fourth in his debut two starts back at Saratoga.

As for the Wait a While, there isn’t any question that the Chad Brown-trained Create a Dream is tons the best on paper off her win in the Chelsey Flower last time, and her fourth in her U.S. debut two back in the Miss Grillo behind New Money Honey and Coasted, the one-two finishers in the subsequent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. However, Create a Dream drew the 14 hole, which, going a mile on turf at Gulfstream, is about as bad a post as you can draw. And that makes her vulnerable.
I like the other Brown trainee – LADY ALEXANDRA. Lady Alexandra won an off-the-turf straight maiden sprint at Belmont at first asking, but is absolutely turf meant, and might improve dramatically off the surface switch.
I’d probably also throw in PARTY BOAT, who didn’t beat a lot in a Keeneland allowance race most recently, but who is now 2 for 2 since moving to grass for the top Graham Motion barn.

The Pulpit and Wait a While are two-fifths of the late pick five. The sequence concludes with a maiden-claiming turf sprint in race 11 in which you could either cast a very wide net, or zero in on MISTY BALLERINA, who showed flashes of run against straight maidens in her first three starts and now takes perhaps the biggest class drop in racing. I might wind up doing both while using the main/backup approach to this sequence. I might lean heavily on Misty Ballerina as an “A” horse, but include a bunch of others as backups if my main horses are successful in the earlier legs.
Race 8, the second leg of the late pick five, is the BUFFALO MAN STAKES, and RECRUITING READY looks close to a single for me as the strong favorite. Recruiting Ready showed exceptional speed in his first two career starts with blinkers on. But in his last two starts, the blinkers came off and he was rated in an unsuccessful attempt to get him to stretch out. Recruiting Ready is back sprinting Saturday, has worked big bullets lately, and he gets his blinkers back on. He might be gone early here.
The remaining leg of this late pick five sequence is race 9, the SMOOTH AIR STAKES. I will spread in this one because the first three morning line favorites – Fact Finding, Basha, and Capitaine – all have flaws I’m uncomfortable with. I can see something wacky happening in this one.