Watchmaker: How I'll play Belmont for Saturday, May 13

Saturday’s 11-race card at Belmont Park, which includes four graded stakes, is one you simply cannot plan ahead for in terms of wagering strategy.

The weather forecast for the New York area Saturday is not pretty. Rain is supposed to start sometime in the morning (one weather service at this writing says it will begin even before dawn) and could quickly turn heavy. The National Weather Service says the chance of rain Saturday is 90 percent and the area could receive around an inch of rain during daylight hours.

Obviously, if this forecast comes to pass it will have a significant impact on Belmont’s card.

Two of the four graded stakes – the Grade 1 Man o’ War and the Grade 3 Beaugay – are scheduled to be run on turf. The New York Racing Association will do everything in its power to keep those graded stakes on the grass. And one tiny bit of good news is these races are scheduled for different turf courses. But scheduled post time for the Beaugay (slotted for the inner turf) is 4:09 p.m. Eastern, and post for the Man o’ War (on the Widener) is 5:13, and by then the weather damage might be done.

Adding additional confusion is three other races Saturday are carded for turf. Maybe – maybe – the second race, with a scheduled post time of 2:01 might survive. But race 5 (at 3:36) looks like it could be in big trouble, and it’s almost impossible envisioning race 11 (with a scheduled post of 6:49) staying on the grass.

But even if you knew which races would be rained off the turf, it’s impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy who will scratch and who will run. How can you plan ahead of you don’t know who’s running in a given race?

And scratches won’t be limited to races that might come off the turf. There will be plenty of horsemen with horses in dirt races who will try to scratch if the track comes up a sea of slop.

Take a look at race 9. There’s a ton of early speed in that one, but if a handful of key horses scratch (which could happen) it would completely change the pace scenario in that race. You can’t strategize ahead for that.

Moreover, once you get past the issues of scratches and surface changes, you have to be attuned for a potential track bias, which, if one does materialize, can’t be identified until after a few races are run.

So if you want to play Belmont on Saturday, the best thing to do is prepare yourself to play on the fly.

For what it’s worth, I did use the Peter Pan (race 4) as one of my Weekend Warrior races. Here’s the link for this week’s Warrior:

As noted in the Warrior, Timeline, a perfect 2 for 2 so far, is immensely promising and he might get the same sloppy, sealed track he did when he won at Aqueduct last time out by 13 1/2 lengths with a 101 Beyer Figure. But Timeline is going to be a very short price, and I think Impressive Edge is worth a shot at a price. Impressive Edge’s fourth in the Florida Derby after a three-wide trip throughout to Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming was a respectable effort, and one he can improve on since that was his first career attempt going longer than seven furlongs.

The only other position I have at this point on this card is I’m against 4-5 morning-line favorite Switzerland in race 3. Switzerland failed at 2-5 when second in his debut at Gulfstream, and failed again at 4-5 when third most recently at Keeneland. Switzerland has talent, and one of these days he’ll probably beat a maiden field by a dozen lengths. But I didn’t like how last time, the one opponent who was involved in the pace with him edged him for second.

I’ll try to beat Switzerland with some mix of Javelin, a decent, wide-trip third in his debut after failing to break on the button, and the well-connected firsters Wonderful Light and D’ambrosio.