Watchmaker: How I'd play Saratoga on Saturday, July 19

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N. Y – With the introduction of 50 cent pick fours and pick fives, I have become almost exclusively a multi-race exotics player. I understand there can be a downside to this by letting potential exacta and trifecta winners go by in pursuit of a pick something you might not hit. But this is where I am right now.

Being a multi-race exotics player, you are at the mercy of race sequences, and sometimes race sequences will force you to sit on your hands and not bet or make only a token entertainment wager.

This is how I feel about the early part of Saturday’s Saratoga card. The New York Racing Association’s racing office did a great job Friday placing the two 2-year-old maiden races in race 2 and race 6, positions where they were not hidden for pick-four, pick-five, and pick-six purposes. If you wanted to see if a first-time starter was drawing money, all you had to do was look at the double possibles.

But on Saturday’s Saratoga card, a 2-year-old maiden race with seven first-timers was slotted as race 4, making it completely hidden when it comes to the pick five, which begins in race 1, and the early pick four, which begins in race 2.

Oh, I suppose I could guess and just take my chances with the two Todd Pletcher-trained entrants. After all, this is Saratoga, and doesn’t Pletcher win with all his first-timers here? But if I’m going to make a play beyond something for mere entertainment, I don’t want to guess.

So, I’m focusing my energies on the latter part of Saturday’s card, specifically the late pick four, which beings in race 8. My main positions in the sequence come in the first leg and in the featured Diana Stakes. As I wrote in my Weekend Warrior column, I like STRATHNAVER in the Diana off her strong finish in the Just a Game and with her getting an additional furlong she will love. But since I think the Diana will be won from off the pace and since I think Alterite might be vulnerable off the long layoff, I’ll also use TANNERY in lesser strength, though I fear the nine furlongs might be too short for her to do her best.

The eighth race has several horses that have shown to be a little reluctant to win. I’ll use a couple of them, but I’ll probably push WEAVE, who we don’t yet think is camera shy. Weave drew a tough post, but she’s relatively lightly raced and should only improve on a good effort in her seasonal bow and with the stretch out to two turns.