Watchmaker: How I'd play Saratoga for Saturday, Aug. 29

Aside from the unfortunate too frequent complaint of burying a 2-year-old race with nine first-time starters in the pick five and early pick four by slotting it as race 4, Saturday’s card at Saratoga is tremendous. With six Grade 1 events plus a Grade 2, it truly is a card befitting the occasion of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah running in the Travers Stakes, the most important post-Triple Crown race for 3-year-olds.

There are 13 races on the Travers card, with first post at 11:45 a.m., and a last race post of 6:53 p.m. And because of the additional races, there is also an additional pick four on the card, an all-Grade 1 stakes one beginning in race 8. As always, the late pick four is on the last four races, so that sequence on Saturday starts with race 10.

Because of my beef with the positioning of race 4 and its impact on the pick five and early pick four, and because all three of my plays in this week’s Weekend Warrior column were at Saratoga, I’ll be focusing most of my energy and capital on the stakes portion of the program.

As noted in Weekend Warrior, I like Unbridled Forever in the Ballerina, race 7. She showed a terrific late kick winning the Shine Again at the distance over the track earlier in the meet in her first start in nine months. Unbridled Forever has every right to improve on that effort, but doesn’t have to really improve much. I also have questions on some of the other prominent entrants in the Ballerina. I doubt La Verdad and Merry Meadow are at their best going seven furlongs. Dame Dorothy is 4 for 4 at seven furlongs, but I wonder how good she really is.

Tamarkuz in the Forego, race 9, was another Weekend Warrior play. I know Private Zone will be tough here. The seven-furlong distance of the Forego is right in Private Zone’s wheelhouse, and not only is he in sharp form, he might also be fairly loose early. Private Zone also finished in front of Tamarkuz when they were third and fourth, respectively, in Honor Code’s Met Mile on Belmont Stakes Day. But I thought Tamarkuz’s effort in the Met Mile was good. He made a nice middle run before weakening in what was his U. S. debut. The cut-back to seven furlongs suits Tamarkuz, and it is only a good thing that trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, who is having another excellent Saratoga meet, has had more time to work with this horse.

Flintshire was not a Warrior play in the Sword Dancer, race 10, because his price will be too short for that vehicle. However, if Flintshire is higher than 4-5, even with his propensity for finishing second, it would be value. Flintshire is a true Group 1 European performer. Our male turf division has been hungry so far this year. And for that reason, you also have to include Guardini as at least a backup in multi-race exotics, and in vertical wagers. His European form isn’t in the same league with Flintshire’s, but his Group 2 win in Germany this year, and his Group 3 win in France last year command some respect.

The Travers was my lead race in the Warrior column, which you can access here:

I went into detail in that piece explaining that I’m not necessarily playing against American Pharoah, it’s just that at the price disparity between him at 1-5 and Texas Red at 8-1, I find Texas Red at 8-1 hard to resist. I liked Texas Red’s victory in the Jim Dandy a lot, and having a race over the track helps here at Saratoga. Bottom line, I’ll be using American Pharoah and Texas Red in equal strength in multi race exotics.