Watchmaker: How I'd play Saratoga on Saturday, Aug. 2

The good news is the weather at Saratoga today looks like it will be better than it could have been, with only a small chance of isolated showers. So, conditions will be fine for this stakes-rich Whitney card.

With a first post of 1 p.m. Eastern and a scheduled post of 6:20 for the 11th and last race, it will be a long, highly entertaining day. Yet even though the first thought going into a long afternoon might be patience, on second thought, I’m not so sure that is the ideal approach on this day.

The late pick four includes three Grade 1 races, but it is the last race, the restricted Lure Stakes, that might be the most wide-open of the bunch. Palace Malice will take a lot of beating in the Whitney, and he’ll be 4-5 or so. I like Southern Honey in the Test, but she could be the second choice in the betting, and you have to use the favored Sweet Reason in there, too. And even though the scratch of Bakken opens up the Vanderbilt, the first leg of the late pick four, a little bit, Palace and Happy My Way step right in to fill the void as tough-looking first and second favorites.

In other words, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if the late pick four includes one short-priced favorite and two first or second choices before it even gets to the Lure, meaning that there might not be much to be made in that wager today.

The thing of it is, the positioning of the two 2-year-old maiden races on today’s card is problematic for those like me who shifted their betting focus to early in the day. The 2-year-old grass event in the third race isn’t hidden for early pick four purposes (you can look at the double possibles from race 2 into race 3 to get a read), but it is hidden for the purposes of the pick five, which begins in the first race. And the 2-year-old race in the fifth is hidden for both early pick four and pick five purposes.

I’m not crazy about that setup (I would have preferred the third race going as the first and the fifth race going as the third), but I’ve decided to get involved early anyway. I’m thinking of singling Leroy Jr. in pick fives in the opener (Formulator says trainer Chad Brown is 6 for 19 with a $2.30 return on investment at New York Racing Association tracks over the last five years in turf sprints with horses off layoffs greater than 180 days), and casting a wide net in those hidden 2-year-old races, incorporating all the likely suspects.

However, the scratch of Soul House from the first race wrecks whatever price there was to be had on Leroy Jr. and has me thinking about going the early pick four route instead.

Of course, there’s always both!