Watchmaker: How I’d play Saratoga on Monday, Aug. 18
Be advised, this is not your typical Monday at Saratoga.
The steeplechase race that was canceled last Wednesday was brought back Monday and goes as the first race, as usual. However, unlike on other steeplechase days at Saratoga this year, there will not be an earlier post time. Post time remains 1 p.m., with nine flat races following the jump event.
This means that, unlike on other Mondays, the pick five begins in the second race, and the early pick 4 begins in the third.
The good news is there are no “hidden” races loaded with firsters for the purposes of any betting sequence, and there are actually opportunities all day.
In the second race, I will try to beat morning-line favorite Invocation, who gets blinkers on cutting back to a sprint but who has a 1-6-4 record from 24 starts and lacks speed. I’ll use One More Chief and Cosmic Coincidence against him.
The fifth race is a fascinating maiden claiming route on the turf, and first-time taggers Are We Not Men, Boss Man, and Double Whammy all look formidable. Double Whammy is especially interesting as he makes his first start for Todd Pletcher. According to DRF Formulator, Pletcher has started four horses at this Saratoga meet in maiden claiming races. Three of them won (all of those winners were making their first start for tags), and the other one finished second, but should have won.
In the sixth race (which today, don’t forget, is the last leg of the pick five and early pick four), I would be pleased to be alive with Premium, who held her form against better last time; Strike Charmer, who must be better than her last and gets blinkers; and the improved Corporate Culture.
The late pick four starts in the seventh race, and the big conundrum is what do you do with Dyker Beach? He is, without question, the best horse. But he also has a record of 1-9-1 from 18 career starts, so you can see what he wants to do. That will force me to go deeper in this race than I really want to.
Pyrite Mountain and Red Vine seem perfectly logical in the eighth. But the ninth race, the featured Summer Colony Stakes, is, for a six-horse race, a total minefield.
The finale is another maiden claiming turf route with a bunch of first-time-for-a-tag class droppers. Pletcher has one in Hurricane Turn, and I’ll be pushing him. But I’ll be backing up with Callans Candy, Summation Time, Loves Last Chance, and Wall Street Kitten.