Watchmaker: How I'd play Saratoga on Friday, July 31
Every horseplayer knows what it’s like to come across a card where horses seem to jump off the page at you. Friday’s card at Saratoga is like that for me. I think this card has a nice mix of price horses worth taking a shot with and logical horses that look downright solid. I might wind up pitching a shutout, but if I do, at least I’ll go down with horses I like.
These are the races that appeal most to me:
Race 1 – Strong Impact looks imposing here, and not just because of the well-meant class drop. I love the cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs for him, as well as the return to Saratoga turf, which might be his favorite surface. My hope is Javier Castellano is aggressive with Strong Impact early. By turf-sprint standards, there really isn’t much serious speed here.
Race 5 – I’m very skeptical of the Beyer Speed Figure assigned to that Rare Eagle race June 14 at Belmont. I think it’s too high, and it makes Captain Tim look better here than he might really be. I’m also bearish on Indian Trail, beaten as the solid favorite in his first two career starts for Todd Pletcher.
I find All Rise very interesting. All Rise’s only start came early this year in a pretty good maiden race at Gulfstream, and it is noteworthy that as a Bill Mott-trained first time starter, he was bet all the way down to 7-2 in a 12-horse field. That’s low for a Mott firster. And though All Rise flashed only brief foot from a tough outside post, all that action given the circumstances suggests this colt has ability. Mott won with six of his first 13 starters at this meet, and is even winning with 2-year-old firsters and horses coming long off layoffs. All Rise will get some of my money.
Race 6 – O’Prado Ole also will get some of my attention. He ran a couple of races last year that make him very competitive in this field, and I love the switch to trainer Christophe Clement.
Race 7 – Tennessee was bet like the second coming of Hindoo when he debuted at Gulfstream last February but couldn’t quite hold on at 3-5. This is the first start since for the $1.15 million yearling purchase, and he probably will be tough. However, Street Jersey is intriguing. He showed run in two very good maiden races last fall at Belmont and now returns with blinkers and Lasix on for a Barclay Tagg barn that won with its first two starters at the meet.
Race 9 – There is plenty of pace in this high-level allowance route, and that should serve Catholic Cowboy well. He was a narrowly beaten second in a relatively paceless race most recently to the talented Matrooh, and his win in the Claiming Crown Jewel late last year over the hard-hitting Page McKenney showed what he can do when he gets a legit pace up front.