Watchmaker: How I'd play Saratoga on Friday, July 24
After starting some Saratoga meets deep in the hole and others loose on the lead, I can tell you Saratoga is a lot more fun when you play from in front. I think my best chance to break on top right out of the gate at this Saratoga meet comes late in Friday’s opening-day card, specifically the late pick four. Here are my thoughts on those late pick four races:
Race 7 – I won’t use her exclusively in this first-level allowance race on the turf, but I know I’m going to lean heavily on Trophee, even if she isn’t going to be all that great a price.
Trophee, a half sister to the two-time Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Treve, really has gotten her act together in her last two starts. She was second two back in a major key race won by Sentiero Italia, who was a very good dead-heat fourth in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks a few weeks ago. Most recently, Trophee was a most impressive winner, overwhelming her field with a bold burst of speed in upper stretch, and she would have scored by much more than four lengths if she hadn’t been taken well in hand in the late stages. It wouldn’t surprise me if Trophee put a few wins together and wound up in stakes events.
Race 8 – As disappointing as his weary fourth in the Westchester was, Juba will be very well bet off the drop back into allowance company, and he must be used, at least defensively, off his strong allowance score two starts back.
However, I’m interested in Doc Almon, whose gaining second to the capable Classy Class most recently was even better than it might first appear. The pedestrian pace in that race did nothing to assist Doc Almon’s late-running style.
Race 9 (Lake George Stakes) – There is plenty of speed in this race on paper, which doesn’t necessarily guarantee there actually will be one, what with the way every jockey takes back these days, especially in turf races. But I’m going to go on there being a fair pace and will be featuring Jellicle Ball, My Year Is a Day, and Mississippi Delta, with Partisan Politics as a backup.
Jellicle Ball has good recent European form, including a close fourth two back in a 17-horse race at Royal Ascot, and makes her first start in the U.S. for trainer Graham Motion. According to Formulator, Motion is 3 for 5 over the last five years with foreign shippers with an ROI of more than $4.
My Year Is a Day also is trained by Motion and was well bet in the Edgewood Stakes in her U.S. debut in her most recent outing. My Year Is a Day had no chance in that race when she was hard held and rank off a very slow pace and gets a better set up this time.
Mississippi Delta was visually impressive going from last to first in the recent Alywow Stakes in her turf debut, and being by Giant’s Causeway, she should love stretching out from a sprint.
Partisan Politics drew a tough outside post but gets a better pace setup than she did when nosed last time out in the Wild Applause.
Race 10 – This is very much the “Dropdown Derby,” and of all the class droppers in the body of the race, I prefer Big Blue Talent and Kowboy Boots, although I will be at least backing up with a few others.
Big Blue Talent is taking a major drop from allowance races, but I like the cut back in distance for him to seven furlongs. I also like that he’s now back with trainer Bobby DiBona, for whom he ran well last fall in two starts off the claim.
Kowboy Boots doesn’t drop as sharply in class, but he does suitably cut back in distance, and he has enough positional speed to work out a trip from the outside.