Watchmaker: How I'd play Saratoga on Friday, Aug. 22

The purpose of the “How I’ll Play Today” feature on drf.com is to show how useful having a strategy going into a given race card can be. It’s nice to demonstrate how having even one or two strong opinions on a card can, if those opinions fall in the right sequence, morph into a winning pick four or pick five play.

But I don’t think you can have a set strategy going into Friday’s card at Saratoga. And that is not only because stubborn rain has washed the day’s three scheduled turf races onto a wet main track. The big reason why you have to be flexible not only going into today’s card but also as the races unfold is because of how the main track here played Thursday.

There were indications of it early on, but it became strongly evident as Thursday went on that the rail was not the place to be. A strong case can be made that a rail trip was why Sunny Desert was a narrowly beaten second in the Union Avenue Stakes instead of a decisive winner, and a similar inside trip might have cost My Jopia a chance to be a stronger contender in the ninth. (It would be worthwhile to note those two and others who had rail trips Thursday for bet backs next time.)

However, just because the rail was dead here yesterday doesn’t guarantee it will be again today, even if the track is still wet. Until we actually see a couple of races, it’s anyone’s guess if the rail will be bad, or golden, or if the track will be completely fair. And even then, a bias you might spot early on might disappear later because the character of wet surfaces does tend to change as the track dries out. That’s why on a day like this you have to be flexible and be willing to adjust to what you see. Sticking to a planned strategy will not allow you to do that.

As I mentioned on Twitter a couple of days ago, I was looking forward to betting on Sensational Slam in the third race, the Tale of the Cat Stakes. Sensational Slam was compromised by the speed bias at Monmouth on Haskell Day when fourth in the Teddy Drone, but his prior New York form was sharp, and after what I saw Thursday, I liked his outside draw. But he scratched.

As I also noted on Twitter the other day, Pick of the Litter in the fifth race also was compromised by the Haskell Day speed bias in his last start, but he has to go up against Cigar Street. When last seen, Cigar Street impressed as a serious talent. Cigar Street is hard to trust completely, though, as he’s returning from a 17-month absence, and the wet track just adds another layer of uncertainty. So, I might take a shot with Pick of the Litter if he’s not compromised by the conditions.

Finally, if I’m not told differently by the way today’s track is playing (if it is indeed playing any particular way at all), I’ll be featuring Close Hatches and Antipathy in the Personal Ensign (race 9) and trying to get Princess of Sylmar out of the number. I’m a fan of Princess of Sylmar. But I sense that the addition of blinkers, while intended to make Princess of Sylmar less of the sort of pace victim she was when she was upset in the Delaware Handicap last time out, could detract from her late punch.