Watchmaker: How I'd play Gulfstream for Saturday, March 28

Saturday is Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream. It is the biggest day of the year for that track, and management responded with a card befitting the occasion.

If you, like me, will be playing Saturday’s Gulfstream card, then you already know it will require commitment on a number of different levels.

Stamina will be necessary. It’s a 14 race card, with first post set for noon Eastern, and the last race, the Florida Derby, scheduled for 6:48 p.m.

Doing your homework is essential. There are seven other stakes on the card beside the Florida Derby, yet even in this age of the short-field stakes race, only one race the entire day (the Skip Away) drew a field of less than eight. Ten of the 14 races, not one of which is an outright claimer, drew fields of nine or more. There are a lot of horses to handicap.

Oh, and you’re going to need a bankroll. The augmented betting menu is a treat for a multi-race exotics player like me. Instead of the usual two pick fours you find on a typical Gulfstream card, there are four on Saturday. Two are in their usual spots – races 2-5, and on the last four races of the day, which in this case are races 11-14. The two extra pick fours encompass races 6-9, and races 7-10. That means that once you get past the opener, every other race is involved in some fashion in a pick four sequence. And of course, the Rainbow 6 and the pick five are in their usual spots as the last six and last five races on the program, respectively.

Anyway, aside from Upstart, whom I believe will win the Florida Derby, here are a few races and horses who will be keys to my wagering day. It’s just a coincidence – really – that they all happen to be stakes races:

Race 5, the Skip Away – I’m interested in Ulanbator. I didn’t understand at all the cut back to one turn for this horse in the Fred Hooper last time, and wasn’t surprised it didn’t work out for him. But Ulanbator is back to two turns here, which is his game, and I think he can upset a favorite in Commissioner whom I am not crazy about. Encryption, off a most impressive win last month, is the main danger.

Race 6, the Appleton – I really liked Grand Tito last time in the Canadian Turf, and I’m convinced he was best when second that day. He launched his rider out of the back of the gate before the start, and then was much too far back early, totally negating the good inside stalking trip he could have had. Grand Tito again projects to get a great trip this time, and with the switch to Javier Castellano, I think he will capitalize on it.

Race 10, the Honey Fox – If Coffee Clique is ready, she will win, but I’m willing to take a shot against her coming off a near 10-month layoff. I like Lady Lara, who showed potential in her two U.S. outings last fall. But I think Lady Lara is capable of taking a big step forward this year, and I attribute that to her close third at York last August where she was narrowly beaten for second by Trade Storm. Trade Storm came back to win the Woodbine Mile, and finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Race 13, the Pan American – Imagining is my strongest opinion on the card. I don’t know what in the world was going on with the ride Imagining got in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap in his first start this year. But the way I saw it, Imagining, a horse with excellent positional speed, was dragged off a slow pace to be a distant early trailer, and then was ridden into traffic down inside in the stretch while full of run. To put it diplomatically, I will consider that a prep. It should be noted that Imagining, who is plenty good enough to win this on his best, followed a curious-trip second in last year’s Gulfstream Turf to post the most important win of his career in the Man o’ War.