Watchmaker: How I'd play Gulfstream on Saturday, March 21

An unfortunate byproduct of so many tracks turning major stakes days into big event days loaded with stakes is that now, not every Saturday card can be a knockout. Even at top tracks. And that is the case Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Oh, there are two Grade 2, $200,000 stakes events, but each drew only seven entrants. There are no 3-year-old races on the dirt, not even a straight maiden or allowance. And two of the first five races are for bottom-level, $6,250 claimers, one for horses who have not won three races in their lives.

However, while this card might not be quite up to Saturday standards for Gulfstream’s championship meeting, the construction of this card is very bettor-friendly.

For example, the stakes race that has an imposing-looking heavy favorite – the Inside Information, headed by Merry Meadow – is not in the pick five or late pick four sequence. As race 7, the Inside Information does kick off the Rainbow 6, though.

An even better illustration of how smartly this card was put together is the fact that the 3-year-old maiden race with all the first-time starters (this one is on the turf, and five of the nine entrants will be making their racing debuts) was perfectly positioned as race 8. In this spot on Saturday’s 12-race card, this dash is not in the late pick four, is the first race of the pick five, and is the second leg of the Rainbow 6.

That means bettors with pick-whatever inclinations will have the opportunity to see which of these firsters might be taking meaningful money. Rainbow 6 players can do that by looking at the possible payoffs in the double starting in race 7 and going into race 8.

As for actual races I like, I’m particularly interested in horses in races 3, 9, and 12. And since two of those races fall in the late pick four and pick five, I’ll be focusing mainly on that.

But in race 3, Pontos is the one I like. Pontos takes a significant class drop in his return from a layoff and does so for a normally high-percentage barn that has been dealing in some bad luck at the meet, and while sporting a conspicuous gap in his workouts last month.

On the other hand, Pontos is only dropping back down to the level at which he was claimed last June, he has the speed to be right with, if not in control of, the pace, and is a new gelding for a barn that has certainly not been dead, if not winning at its usual rate. The barn does have more than twice as many second-place finishes as wins, which suggests poor luck, not poor performance.

I find Semblance of Order very intriguing in race 9. He had zero chance while running into Khozan, Unbridled Juan, and Wisecracker when off the board in his first two starts. Semblance of Order now moves to turf with a suitable pedigree on the bottom side and catches a group here that is far from imposing. Semblance of Order probably won’t be the only horse I use in this race in multirace exotic wagers, but he certainly will be an “A” horse on my tickets.

Finally, Wicked Tune is my horse in the finale, race 12. Wicked Tune hasn’t been out since June and returns at a sharply reduced level. But he has run big while fresh multiple times in the past, and I’m not at all concerned about the class drop. Wicked Tune is 8 now. You want him, claim him. He is being spotted where he can win by a barn whose business is to win races. Wicked Tune adores the Gulfstream turf and gets the services of Javier Castellano, which just telegraphs the intent here. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’ll be the 7-2 he is on the morning line.