Watchmaker: How I'd play Gulfstream on Saturday, Jan. 23
From the standpoint of quality, Saturday’s card at Gulfstream Park is disappointing, especially for this time of year. There are no maiden special weight races on dirt and not one legitimate allowance event, which is shocking for Gulfstream on a Saturday in the winter. The one stakes race, the H. Allen Jerkens, is, frankly, a novelty event, what with it being at two miles on turf.
There are, however, three maiden claimers, two for $12,500. There also are three $6,250 claiming races and two $16,000 claimers. This is a card that one might expect to find at Gulfstream in August, not January.
Now, I don’t need a bunch of stakes races to get my horseplayer juices going. I’m perfectly happy with a bunch of cheap races if I find them competitive and, most importantly, interesting. But as much as I would be 1-5 to bet a middle-of-winter Saturday late pick four at Gulfstream, there might be an upset here.
The second leg of this sequence is the Jerkens, and Charming Kitten looks hard to beat at a short price. That in itself wouldn’t necessarily stop me, but I also think the third leg in the sequence looks chalky. If I feel that half the sequence could break chalky, then playing it just doesn’t make much sense.
The two races that are to my taste Saturday are races 6 and 11.
Todd Pletcher has a strong hand in Race 6 with Kismet’s Heels and Gimlet in this straight maiden turf route. Both were making their debuts when they finished second and fourth on Gulfstream’s turf course last month. Both ran very well when you also consider how wide they were on the far turn and that first-time starters going two turns on turf is not Pletcher’s strongest suit. Moreover, the 84 and 82 Beyer Speed Figures that Kismet’s Heels and Gimlet earned look imposing in this field. And given how the winner of that race, Urban Bourbon, came back to finish third in the Dania Beach Stakes, the race that Kismet’s Heels and Gimlet come out of might have actually been that fast.
But there are three others in here who I’m interested in on the basis of pedigree and who might offer value in vertical wagers. They are Remembering Mickey, Hint of Roses, and Cite. Remembering Mickey’s form is clouded after competing in off-the-turf races in his last two starts, but he showed run in a troubled-trip debut three back. Remembering Mickey is out of Fantastic Shirl, who was a stakes winner on turf, and two of Remembering Mickey’s three siblings won on the grass. He could show sharp improvement off the surface switch.
So too could Hint of Roses, who ran into a couple of promising horses in three unsuccessful dirt starts and whose two siblings both won on turf.
As for Cite, his dam was a multiple winner on turf, and he adds Lasix, a profitable move for trainer Bill Mott.
Race 11, a $35,000 maiden claimer, is also on the turf. I’m interested in Voodoo Wave and Slapjack, and not only because they take the massive drop from maiden special weights to make their first starts against maiden claimers. Voodoo Wave is by Forestry and from an Unbridled’s Song mare, so switching to turf for the first time could work for him. Slapjack showed enough while finishing sixth in his debut three starts back going two turns on grass to compete at this level.
I’m also using Torocon and Disco Bill. Torocon ran respectably in his first two starts, then was in too deep in that potentially hot Urban Bourbon maiden race and got kind of lost between rivals much of the way last time out. I like his jockey switch to Luis Saez.
Disco Bill’s debacle in an off-the-turf race most recently is a throw-out. He ran only okay when a dead-heat third on grass in his debut two back, but he merits a chance to improve on that effort.